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Forward modeling analyses of Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii) growth in response to climate factors in different regions of the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

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The process-based Vaganov–Shashkin model simulations accurately represent the nonlinear process of Qilian Juniper growth–climate relationship over different regions of the Qilian Mountains.

Abstract

The Qilian Mountains (QM), northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), is one of the most studied areas in China for tree-ring research; considerable dendroclimatic reconstructions have been carried out and a series of important achievements made over this region. However, most reconstructions were primarily based on empirical relationships between tree growth and climate factors identified through statistical analysis. Reliable information on the physiological processes of tree responses to climate change in different regions is still scarce. Here, the process-based Vaganov–Shashkin (VS) model was used to simulate regional patterns of climate–tree growth relationships using observed temperature and precipitation over the different regions of the QM. Results showed that the sequences of simulated growth curves were broadly consistent with the actual tree-ring chronologies in all three regions of the QM. VS model simulations accurately represented the effect of climatic controls on the growth of Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii). VS model outputs closely corresponded to statistical relationships between tree-ring width and climate factors as well as observational physiological behavior; i.e., available water in May and June had the largest contribution to ring formation in Qilian Juniper over the QM. The simulated and actual data analyses revealed that the radial growth of trees in the western QM was more sensitive to moisture conditions in May and June, compared with growth in the central and eastern QM. Tree growth in this region is representative of large areas in northwestern China with drought conditions.

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Acknowledgments

This study was funded by the National Science Foundation of China (No. 41171039 and 41475067) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. lzujbky-2014-268).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Junzhou Zhang, Xiaohua Gou, Ming Lu, Xiangyu Xu, Fen Zhang, Wenhuo Liu & Linlin Gao

  2. Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lanont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA

    Xiaohua Gou

  3. National Climate Centre, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yongxiang Zhang

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  1. Junzhou Zhang
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  2. Xiaohua Gou
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Correspondence to Xiaohua Gou.

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Communicated by R. Grote.

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Zhang, J., Gou, X., Zhang, Y. et al. Forward modeling analyses of Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii) growth in response to climate factors in different regions of the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China. Trees 30, 175–188 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-015-1286-0

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