Original

Archive of Applied Mechanics

, Volume 81, Issue 11, pp 1621-1637

A novel method to estimate derailment probability due to track geometric irregularities using reliability techniques and advanced simulation methods

  • Saeed MohammadzadehAffiliated withSchool of Railway Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology Email author 
  • , Manie SangtarashhaAffiliated withSchool of Railway Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology
  • , Habibollah MolatefiAffiliated withSchool of Railway Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology

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Abstract

Track irregularities have a dramatic impact on the response and vibration of a railway vehicle and on the interaction between wheel and rail. The random nature of the track structure and constituent materials and the effects of other factors such as maintenance conditions and transit traffic give rise to the random nature of track irregularities. This research provides a method to estimate the derailment probability of a railway vehicle where track irregularities are assumed to be random, and the interaction of the track and the moving train is considered using advanced dynamic analysis. For this purpose, the limit state function of derailment was estimated using the response surface method and advanced simulation. The probability of derailment was then estimated using a Level 3 reliability method.

Keywords

Estimation of derailment Response surface method Derailment Saturated design method Track–rail interaction SIMPACK Importance sampling method