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Modulation of the Southern Africa precipitation response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation by the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole

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Abstract

The climate of Southern Africa, defined as the land area bound by the region 15°S–35°S; 12.5°E–42.5°E, during the December–March rainy season is driven by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD). The observed December–March 1979–2014 Southern Africa precipitation during the four ENSO and SIOD phase combinations suggests that the phase of the SIOD can disrupt or enhance the Southern Africa precipitation response to ENSO. Here, we use a large ensemble of model simulations driven by global SST and ENSO-only SST to test whether the SIOD modifies the relationship between Southern Africa precipitation and ENSO. Since ENSO-based precipitation forecasts are used extensively over Southern Africa, an improved understanding of how other modes of SST variability modulate the regional response to ENSO is important. ENSO, in the absence of the SIOD, forces an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave over Southern Africa that modifies the regional mid-tropospheric vertical motions and precipitation anomalies. El Niño (La Niña) is related with high (low) pressure over Southern Africa that produces anomalous mid-tropospheric descent (ascent) and decreases (increases) in precipitation relative to average. When the SIOD and ENSO are in opposite phases, the SIOD compliments the ENSO-related atmospheric response over Southern Africa by strengthening the regional equivalent barotropic Rossby wave, anomalous mid-tropospheric vertical motions and anomalous precipitation. By contrast, when the SIOD and ENSO are in the same phase, the SIOD disrupts the ENSO-related atmospheric response over Southern Africa by weakening the regional equivalent barotropic Rossby wave, anomalous mid-tropospheric vertical motions and anomalous precipitation.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Dave Allured for completing the ECHAM5.4 simulations and Tao Zhang for completing the GFSv2 simulations. The authors are grateful for support from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA

    Andrew Hoell

  2. Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Chris Funk & Laura Harrison

  3. Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, SD, USA

    Chris Funk

  4. Institut für Geologische Wissenschaften, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Jens Zinke

  5. Department of Environment and Agriculture, Curtin University of Technology, Bentley, Australia

    Jens Zinke

  6. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Cape Ferguson, Australia

    Jens Zinke

  7. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Jens Zinke

Authors
  1. Andrew Hoell
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  2. Chris Funk
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  3. Jens Zinke
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  4. Laura Harrison
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Correspondence to Andrew Hoell.

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Hoell, A., Funk, C., Zinke, J. et al. Modulation of the Southern Africa precipitation response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation by the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole. Clim Dyn 48, 2529–2540 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3220-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3220-6

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