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Does vertical temperature gradient of the atmosphere matter for El Niño development?

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Abstract

In this work, we examine the connection of vertical temperature gradient of the tropospheric atmosphere along the equator with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the possible impact of the long-term change of the gradient. It is suggested that when the temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere are relatively warmer (cooler) than in the upper troposphere, the atmosphere is less (more) stable and favors an El Niño (a La Niña) event to develop. ENSO evolutions in 1997–1998 and 2014–2015 events are good examples of this relationship. They started from similar ocean anomaly states in the springs of 1997 and 2014, but developed into an extreme El Niño in 1997–1998 and a borderline El Niño in 2014–2015. That may be partially due to differences in the evolutions of the vertical temperature anomaly gradient in troposphere. Thus, in addition to the significant atmospheric response to ENSO, the preconditioning of vertical gradient of the tropospheric temperature due to internal atmospheric processes to some extent may play an active role in affecting ENSO evolution. The long-term trend with more pronounced warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere causes a reduction in the vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere. Moreover, unlike almost homogenous warm anomalies in the upper troposphere, the lower troposphere shows remarkable regional features along the equator during 1979–2014, with cold anomaly trends over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean associated with the so-called hiatus and some warm anomalies on its two sides in the east and west. This vertical and zonal distribution of the air temperature trends in the troposphere over the Pacific Ocean is consistent with the convection suppression over the central Pacific since 2000, implying a weakening of atmosphere and ocean coupling.

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Acknowledgements

We appreciate the insight comments and constructive suggestions from Dr. Ji Nie and another two reviewers as well as Dr. Peitao Peng. Bohua Huang is supported by grants from NSF (AGS-1338427), NOAA (NA14OAR4310160), and NASA (NNX14AM19G). The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any view or opinions expressed herein, are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NWS, NOAA, or the Department of Commerce. All the data used in this work are available at NCEP/CPC.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Zeng-Zhen Hu, Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar, Jieshun Zhu & Bhaskar Jha

  2. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA

    Bohua Huang

  3. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, 270 Research Hall, Mail Stop 6C5, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA

    Bohua Huang

  4. Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA

    Yu-heng Tseng

  5. Innovim, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Jieshun Zhu & Bhaskar Jha

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  1. Zeng-Zhen Hu
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Correspondence to Zeng-Zhen Hu.

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Hu, ZZ., Huang, B., Tseng, Yh. et al. Does vertical temperature gradient of the atmosphere matter for El Niño development?. Clim Dyn 48, 1413–1429 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3149-9

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