Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Previous research found that the warming rate observed for the period 1979–2012 increases dramatically with decreasing vegetation greenness over land between 50°S and 50°N, with the strongest warming rate seen over the driest regions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula, suggesting warming amplification over deserts. To further this finding, this paper explores possible mechanisms for this amplification by analyzing observations, reanalysis data and historical simulations of global coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. We examine various variables, related to surface radiative forcing, land surface properties, and surface energy and radiation budget, that control the warming patterns in terms of large-scale ecoregions. Our results indicate that desert amplification is likely attributable primarily to enhanced longwave radiative forcing associated with a stronger water vapor feedback over drier ecoregions in response to the positive global-scale greenhouse gas forcing. This warming amplification and associated downward longwave radiation at the surface are reproduced by historical simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcings, but are absent if only natural forcings are considered, pointing to new potential fingerprints of anthropogenic warming. These results suggest a fundamental pattern of global warming over land that depend on the dryness of ecosystems in mid- and low- latitudes, likely reflecting primarily the first order large-scale thermodynamic component of global warming linked to changes in the water and energy cycles over different ecosystems. This finding may have important implications in interpreting global warming patterns and assessing climate change impacts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Christensen JH, Boberg F (2012) Temperature dependent climate projection deficiencies in CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 39:L24705. doi:10.1029/2012GL053650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai A (2006) Recent climatology, variability and trends in global surface humidity. J Clim 19:3589–3606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai A (2013) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Change 3:52–58. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1633

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davy R, Esau I (2014) Global climate models’ bias in surface temperature trends and variability. Environ Res Lett 9(11):114024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. doi:10.1002/qj.828

  • Deser C, Walsh JE, Timlin MS (2000) Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends. J Clim 13(3):617–633

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dessler AE, Zhang Z, Yang P (2008) Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20704. doi:10.1029/2008GL035333

  • Dessler AE, SM Davis (2010) Trends in tropospheric humidity from reanalysis systems. J Geophys Res 115:D19127. doi:10.1029/2010JD014192

  • Dirmeyer PA, Jin Y, Singh B, Yan X (2013) Trends in land-atmosphere interactions from CMIP5 simulations. J. Hydrometeorol. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-0107.1

    Google Scholar 

  • ECMWF (2013) IFS documentation—Cy40r1, operational implementation 22 November 2013, Part IV: physical processes. http://old.ecmwf.int/research/ifsdocs/CY40r1/

  • Foster G, Rahmstorf S (2011) Global temperature evolution 1979–2010. Environ Res Lett 6:044022. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu R (2015) Global warming-accelerated drying in the tropics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(12):3593–3594. doi:10.1073/pnas.1503231112

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo ZC, Dirmeyer PA (2013) Interannual variability of land–atmosphere coupling strength. J. Hydrometeorol 14:1636–1646. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-0171.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48:RG4004. doi:10.1029/2010RG000345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harris I, Jones PD (2014) CRU TS3.22: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.22 of high resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901–Dec. 2013). NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre, 24 September 2014. doi:10.5285/18BE23F8-D252-482D-8AF9-5D6A2D40990C

  • Held IM, Soden BJ (2000) Water vapor feedback and global warming. Annu Rev Energy Environ 25:441–475

  • Huete A, Didan K, Miura T, Rodriguez EP, Gao X, Ferreira LG (2002) Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens Environ 83:195–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN:978 0521 88009-1

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, the contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN:978-1-107-05799-1

  • Jeong SJ, Ho CH, Jeong JH (2009) Increase in vegetation greenness and decrease in springtime warming over east Asia. Geophy Res Lett 36:L02710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiménez-Muñoz JC, Sobrino JA, Mattar C, Malhi Y (2013) Spatial and temporal patterns of the recent warming of the Amazon forest. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50456

    Google Scholar 

  • Koster RD et al (2004) Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305:1138–1140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu J, Cai M (2010) Quantifying contributions to polar warming amplification in an idealized coupled general circulation model. Clim Dyn 34:669–687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T (2007) Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L06805. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443

    Google Scholar 

  • Malhi Y, Wright J (2004) Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B 359:311–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNider RT, Steeneveld GJ, Holtslag AAM, Pielke RA Sr, Mackaro S, Pour-Biazar A, Walters J, Nair U, Christy J (2012) Response and sensitivity of the nocturnal boundary layer over land to added longwave radiative forcing. J Geophys Res 117:D14106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitas CM, Clement A (2006) Recent behavior of the Hadley cell and tropical thermodynamics in climate models and reanalyses. Geophys Res Lett 33:L01810. doi:10.1029/2005GL024406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myhre G, Highwood EJ, Shine KP, Stordal F (1998) New estimates of radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases. Geophys Res Lett 25:2715–2718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nagler PL, Scott RL, Westenburg C, Cleverly JR, Glenn EP, Huete AR (2005) Evapotranspiration on western US rivers estimated using the enhanced vegetation indices from MODIS and data from eddy covariance and Bowen ratio flux towers. Remote Sens Environ 97(3):337–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naud CM, Chen Y-H, Rangwala I, Miller JR (2013) Sensitivity of downward longwave surface radiation to moisture and cloud changes in a high elevation region. J Geophys Res 118(17):10072–10081. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50644

    Google Scholar 

  • Paltridge G, Arking A, Pook M (2009) Trends in middle- and upper-level tropospheric humidity from NCEP reanalysis data. Theor Appl Climatol 98:351–359. doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0117-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Philipona R, Durr B, Ohmura A, Ruckstuhl C (2005) Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback increase temperature in Europe. Geophys Res Lett 32:L19809. doi:10.1029/2005GL023624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pithan F, Mauritsen T (2014) Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models. Nat Geosci 7:181–184. doi:10.1038/ngeo2071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qu X, Hall A (2007) What controls the strength of snow-albedo feedback? J Clim 20:3971–3981. doi:10.1175/JCLI4186.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quan X-W, Hoerling M, Perlwitz J, Diaz H, Xu T (2014) How fast are the tropics expanding? J. Clim 27:1999–2013. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00287.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rangwala I, Sinsky E, Miller RJ (2013) Amplified warming projections for high altitude regions of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from CMIP5 models. Environ Res Lett 8:024040. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024040

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruckstuhl C, Philipona R, Morland J, Ohmura A (2007) Observed relationship between surface specific humidity, integrated water vapor, and longwave downward radiation at different altitudes. J Geophys Res 112:L19809. doi:10.1029/2005GL023624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider T, O’Gorman PA, Levine XJ (2010) Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes. Rev Geophys 48:RG3001. doi:10.1029/2009RG000302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA (2010) Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim 23:4651–4668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Litschi M, Schär C (2006) Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443:205–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ (2010) Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth Sci Rev 99(3–4):125–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simmons AJ, Willett KM, Jones PD, Thorne PW, Dee DP (2010) Low-frequency variations in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and precipitation: inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets. J Geophys Res 115(D1):D01110. doi:10.1029/2009JD012442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sutton RT, Dong B, Gregory JM (2007) Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophys Res Lett 34(2):L02701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suzuki R, Masuda K (2004) Interannual co-variability found in evapotranspiration and satellite-derived vegetation indices over northern Asia. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 82(4):1233–1241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thorne PW, Vose RS (2010) Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends: are they really achievable? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:353–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thorne PW, Lanzante JR, Peterson TC, Seidel DJ, Shine KP (2010) Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy. Clim Change, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. doi:10.1002/wcc.80

    Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Dai A, van der Schrier G, Jones PD, Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Sheffield J (2013) Global warming and changes in drought. Nat Clim Change 4:17–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vose RS et al (2012) NOAA’s merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1677–1685. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang KC, Dickinson RE (2012) A review of global terrestrial evapotranspiration: observation, modeling, climatology, and climatic variability. Rev Geophys 50(2):RG2005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang K, Dickinson RE (2013a) Global atmospheric downward longwave radiation at the surface from ground-based observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalyses. Rev Geophys 51:150–185. doi:10.1002/rog.20009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang KC, Dickinson RE (2013) Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(37): 14877–14882. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1311433110

  • Wang KC, Liang S (2009) Global atmospheric downward longwave radiation over land surface under all-sky conditions from 1973 to 2008. J Geophys Res 114:D19101. doi:10.1029/2009JD011800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wild M, Ohmura A, Makowski K (2007) Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L04702. doi:10.1029/2006GL028031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willett KW, Jones PD, Gillett NP, Thorne PW (2008) Recent changes in surface humidity: development of the HadCRUH dataset. J Clim 21(5364):5383

    Google Scholar 

  • Wunsch W (2005) The total meridional heat flux and its oceanic and atmospheric partition. J Clim 18:4374–4380. doi:10.1175/JCLI3539.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L, Dickinson RE, Tian Y, Vose RS (2007) Impact of vegetation removal and soil aridation on diurnal temperature range in a semiarid region—application to the Sahel. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(46):17937–17942

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L, Dai A, Dai Y, Vose RS, Zou C-Z, Tian Y, Chen H (2009) Spatial dependence of diurnal temperature range trends on precipitation from 1950 to 2004. Clim Dyn 32:429–440. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0387-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L, Dickinson RE, Dai A, Dirmeyer P (2010) Detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing to diurnal temperature range changes from 1950 to 1999: comparing multi-model simulations with observations. Clim Dyn 35:1289–1307. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0644-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L, Chen H, Dai Y (2015) Stronger warming amplification over drier ecoregions observed since 1979. Environ Res Lett 10:064012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064012

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1247137 and AGS-1535426). H.C. was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 41230422). N.W. was supported by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) and by the University at Albany, State University of New York.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNY), 1400 Washington Avenue, Albany, NY, 12222, USA

    Liming Zhou & Nan Wei

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Haishan Chen

  3. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Wenjian Hua

  4. College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Yongjiu Dai & Nan Wei

Authors
  1. Liming Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Haishan Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wenjian Hua
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Yongjiu Dai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Nan Wei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Liming Zhou.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhou, L., Chen, H., Hua, W. et al. Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979. Clim Dyn 47, 2955–2974 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3007-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3007-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation