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Global warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation: assessments from the CMIP5 models

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Abstract

The evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) in a global warming environment is a serious scientific and socio-economic concern since many recent studies have demonstrated the weakening nature of large-scale tropical circulation under anthropogenic forcing. But, how such processes affect the ASM circulation and rainfall is still a matter of debate. This study examines the climate model projections from a selected set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to provide a unified perspective on the future ASM response. The results indicate a robust reduction in the large-scale meridional gradient of temperature (MGT) at upper levels (200 hPa) over the ASM region, associated with enhanced ascendance and deep tropospheric heating over the equatorial Pacific in the future climate. The differential heating in the upper troposphere, with concomitant increase (decrease) in atmospheric stability (MGT), weakens the ASM circulation, promotes a northward shift of the monsoon circulation and a widening of the local Hadley cell in the eastern Indian sector. An examination of the water vapour budget indicates the competing effects of the thermodynamic (moisture convergence) and dynamics processes (monsoon circulation) on future ASM rainfall changes. The former component wins out over the later one and leads to the intensification of Indian monsoon rainfall in the CMIP5 projections. However, the diagnostics further show a considerable offset due to the dynamic component.

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Acknowledgments

We sincerely thank Prof B N Goswami, Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India for all the support for this research work. We are also thankful to Drs Krishnan R and Ramesh V for their constructive comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript. We also thank three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. Sooraj K.P. also wishes to acknowledge Prof K-H. Seo and the Postdoc development program of Pusan National University for providing support for initial part of this study. We acknowledge the climate modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and the World Climate Research Programme’s working Group on coupled modelling, for their roles in making available the “CMIP5” multi-model data sets, as listed in Table 1.

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  1. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    K. P. Sooraj & M. Mujumdar

  2. LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universites (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, France

    Pascal Terray

  3. Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-IITM-NIO–IRD Joint International Laboratory, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    Pascal Terray

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Sooraj, K.P., Terray, P. & Mujumdar, M. Global warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation: assessments from the CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 45, 233–252 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7

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