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Interannual variability of the South Pacific Ocean in observations and simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2

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Abstract

The mechanism of the South Pacific Ocean Dipole (SPOD) mode is examined, using a 50-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and 50-year observation-based ocean–atmosphere analyses (1961–2010). It is shown that the SPOD, a sea surface temperatures (SST) seesaw between the subtropics and extratropics, is the dominant mode of the interannual variability in the South Pacific in both observations and CFSv2 simulation. CFSv2 also reproduces the seasonal phase-locking of the observed SPOD, with the anomaly pattern developing in austral spring, peaking in summer, and decaying in autumn. Composite analyses based on both observational and model data suggest that in the warm phase of SPOD, positive SST anomaly (SSTA) is initiated by weakened westerly winds over the central South Pacific in austral spring, which suppress the surface evaporative heat loss and reduce the oceanic mixed layer depth, both contributing to the SST warming. The wind-SST-mixed layer anomalies then evolve coherently over the next two seasons while the cold SSTA develops to the north. The wind perturbations are in turn a response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which forces an atmospheric planetary wave train, the Pacific-South American pattern, emanating from an anomalous heat source in the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, SPOD is significantly correlated with the southern annular mode (SAM) while the latter is also significantly correlated with the ENSO index. This suggests that ENSO’s influence on the SPOD may be partially conveyed through SAM.

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Acknowledgments

YG is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (41105057, 41105049, 41275111), and Chinese meteorological industry-specific fund (GYHY201206002). BH, JZ and JK are supported by grants from NSF (ATM-0830068), NOAA (NA09OAR4310058), and NASA (NNX09AN50G). We acknowledge T. DelSole, L. Jia and L. Marx for conducting the CFSv2 long-term free run.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Center for Data Assimilation Research and Application, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China

    Yuanhong Guan

  2. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Fairfax, VA, USA

    Yuanhong Guan, Bohua Huang, Jieshun Zhu & James L. Kinter III

  3. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, Mail Stop 6C5, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA

    Yuanhong Guan, Bohua Huang & James L. Kinter III

  4. Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA

    Zeng-Zhen Hu

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  1. Yuanhong Guan
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Correspondence to Bohua Huang.

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This paper is a contribution to the Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 is a coupled global climate model and was implemented by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in seasonal forecasting operations in March 2011. This Topical Collection is coordinated by Jin Huang, Arun Kumar, Jim Kinter and Annarita Mariotti.

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Guan, Y., Huang, B., Zhu, J. et al. Interannual variability of the South Pacific Ocean in observations and simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2. Clim Dyn 43, 1141–1157 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2148-y

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