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Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

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Abstract

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

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Acknowledgments

IITM is fully supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, New Delhi. India. We thank NCEP for reanalysis datasets and for transferring the CFS system under the MoU between MoES and NOAA. We also thank IMD for daily rainfall data. S.S. thanks the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi, for a research fellowship.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    S. Abhilash, A. K. Sahai, N. Borah, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila, S. De & B. N. Goswami

  2. National Center for Environmental Prediction, Camps Springs, MD, USA

    Arun Kumar

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  1. S. Abhilash
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  2. A. K. Sahai
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  3. N. Borah
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  4. R. Chattopadhyay
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  6. S. Sharmila
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  7. S. De
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  8. B. N. Goswami
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Correspondence to A. K. Sahai.

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This paper is a contribution to the Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 is a coupled global climate model and was implemented by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in seasonal forecasting operations in March 2011. This Topical Collection is coordinated by Jin Huang, Arun Kumar, Jim Kinter and Annarita Mariotti.

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Abhilash, S., Sahai, A.K., Borah, N. et al. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2. Clim Dyn 42, 2801–2815 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2045-9

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