Article

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 41, Issue 9, pp 2555-2575

The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project

  • Robert VautardAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ Email author 
  • , Andreas GobietAffiliated withWegener Center for Climate and Global Change and Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, University of Graz
  • , Daniela JacobAffiliated withClimate Service Center
  • , Michal BeldaAffiliated withDepartment of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Charles University
  • , Augustin ColetteAffiliated withInstitut National de l’Environnement industriel et des risques (INERIS)
  • , Michel DéquéAffiliated withMétéo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME
  • , Jesús FernándezAffiliated withDepartment Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria
  • , Markel García-DíezAffiliated withInstituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC—UC
  • , Klaus GoergenAffiliated withCentre de Recherche Public—Gabriel Lippmann
    • , Ivan GüttlerAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQCroatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ)
    • , Tomáš HalenkaAffiliated withDepartment of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Charles University
    • , Theodore KaracostasAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQDepartment of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
    • , Eleni KatragkouAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQDepartment of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
    • , Klaus KeulerAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQChair of Environmental Meteorology, Brandenburg University of Technology (BTU) Cottbus
    • , Sven KotlarskiAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
    • , Stephanie MayerAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQUni Research, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research
    • , Erik van MeijgaardAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
    • , Grigory NikulinAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
    • , Mirta PatarčićAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQCroatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ)
    • , John ScinoccaAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQEnvironment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
    • , Stefan SobolowskiAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQUni Research, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research
    • , Martin SuklitschAffiliated withWegener Center for Climate and Global Change and Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, University of Graz
    • , Claas TeichmannAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
    • , Kirsten Warrach-SagiAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQInstitute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim
    • , Volker WulfmeyerAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQInstitute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim
    • , Pascal YiouAffiliated withLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ

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Abstract

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.

Keywords

Regional climate modeling Heat waves Model evaluation Climate projection EURO-CORDEX