Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate changes over China from the present (1990–1999) to future (2046–2055) under the A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) and A1B (balanced) emission scenarios are projected using the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nests with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM). For the present climate, RegCM3 downscaling corrects several major deficiencies in the driving CCSM, especially the wet and cold biases over the Sichuan Basin. As compared with CCSM, RegCM3 produces systematic higher spatial pattern correlation coefficients with observations for precipitation and surface air temperature except during winter. The projected future precipitation changes differ largely between CCSM and RegCM3, with strong regional and seasonal dependence. The RegCM3 downscaling produces larger regional precipitation trends (both decreases and increases) than the driving CCSM. Contrast to substantial trend differences projected by CCSM, RegCM3 produces similar precipitation spatial patterns under different scenarios except autumn. Surface air temperature is projected to consistently increase by both CCSM and RegCM3, with greater warming under A1FI than A1B. The result demonstrates that different scenarios can induce large uncertainties even with the same RCM-GCM nesting system. Largest temperature increases are projected in the Tibetan Plateau during winter and high-latitude areas in the northern China during summer under both scenarios. This indicates that high elevation and northern regions are more vulnerable to climate change. Notable discrepancies for precipitation and surface air temperature simulated by RegCM3 with the driving conditions of CCSM versus the model for interdisciplinary research on climate under the same A1B scenario further complicated the uncertainty issue. The geographic distributions for precipitation difference among various simulations are very similar between the present and future climate with very high spatial pattern correlation coefficients. The result suggests that the model present climate biases are systematically propagate into the future climate projections. The impacts of the model present biases on projected future trends are, however, highly nonlinear and regional specific, and thus cannot be simply removed by a linear method. A model with more realistic present climate simulations is anticipated to yield future climate projections with higher credibility.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Chen W, Jiang Z, Li L (2011) Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B scenario using 28 AOGCMs. J Clim 24:4741–4756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins WD, Bitz CM, Blackmon ML, Bonan GB, Bretherton CS, Carton JA, Chang P, Doney SC, Hack JJ, Henderson TB, Kiehl JT, Large WG, McKenna DS, Santer BD, Smith RD (2006) The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). J Clim 19:2122–2143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson RE, Henderson-Seller A, Kennedy PJ (1993) Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. NCAR Tech Note NCAR/TN-387 + STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, p 72

  • Editorial board of China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change (2011) Second national assessment report on climate change, Science Press, Utrecht, p 710

  • Gao X, Zhao Z, Ding Y (2001) Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Adv Atmo Sci 18:1224–1230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Xu Y, Zhao Z, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2006) On the role of resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asia precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol 86:173–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Shi Y, Song R, Giorgi F, Wang Y, Zhang D (2008) Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteorol Atmos Phys 100:73–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Shi Y, Giorgi F (2011) A high resolution simulation of climate change over China. Sci China Earth Sci 54:462–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Shi Y, Zhang D, Giorgi F (2012a) A high resolution climate change simulation of the 21st century over China by RegCM3. Chin Sci Bull 57:1188–1195. doi:10.007/s11434-011-4935-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao X, Shi Y, Zhang D, Wu J, Giorgi F, Ji Z, Wang Y (2012b) Uncertainties of monsoon precipitation projection over China: results from two high resolution RCM simulations. Climate Research 52:213–226. doi:10.3354/cr101084

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Bates GT (1993a) Development of a second generation regional climate model (RegCM2) I: boundary layer and radiative transfer processes. Mon Wea Rev 121:2794–2813

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Bates GT (1993b) Development of a second generation regional climate model (RegCM2) II: convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Mon Wea Rev 121:2814–2832

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Francisco R, Pal JS (2003) Effects of a subgrid-scale topography and land use scheme on the simulation of surface climate and hydrology. Part I: effects of temperature and water vapor disaggregation. J Hydrometeor 4:317–333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull. 58:175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Grell G (1993) Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon Wea Rev 121:764–787

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grell GA, Dudhia J, Stauffer DR (1994) A description of the fifth-generation Penn-State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-398 + STR, National Center for Atmospheric Reseach, Boulder, CO, p 122

  • Hall A, Qu X (2006) Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change. Geophys Res Lett 33:L03502. doi:10.1029/2005GL025127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han J, Roads JO (2004) U.S. climate sensitivity simulated with the NCEP regional spectral model. Clim Change 62:115–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holtslag AAM, Boville BA (1993) Local versus nonlocal boundary-layer diffusion in a global climate model. J Clim 6:1825–1842

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007) Climate Chang 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller HLJ, Chen Z (eds), Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, New York

  • Ju LX, Wang HJ (2006) Modern climate over East Asia simulated by a regional climate model nested in a global gridpoint general circulation model (in Chinese). Chinese J Geophys 49:52–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang IS, Jin K, Wang B (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19:383–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Breigleb BP, Williamson D, Rasch P (1996) Description of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-420 + STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, p 158

  • Liang X-Z, Wang W-C, Samel AN (2001) Biases in AMIP model simulations of the east China monsoon system. Clim Dyn 17:291–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang X-Z, Li L, Dai A, Kunkel KE (2004a) Regional climate model simulation of summer precipitation diurnal cycle over the United States. Geophys Res Lett 31:L24208. doi:10.1029/2004GL0210054

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang X-Z, Li L, Kunkel KE, Ting M, Wang JXL (2004b) Regional climate model simulation of U.S. precipitation during 1982–2002. Part I: annual cycle. J Clim 17:3510–3528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang X-Z, Pan J, Zhu J, Kunkel KE, Wang JXL, Dai A (2006) Regional climate model downscaling of the U.S. summer climate and future change. J Geophys Res 111:D10108. doi:10.1029/2005JD006685

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang X-Z, Kunkel KE, Meehl GA, Jones RG, Wang JXL (2008) RCM downscaling analysis of GCM present climate biases propagation into future change projections. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08709. doi:10.1029/2007GL032849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang X-Z, Xu M, Yuan X, Ling T, Choi HI, Zhang F, Chen L, Liu S, Su S, Qiao F, He Y, Wang JXL, Kunkel KE, Gao W, Joseph E, Morris V, Yu T-W, Dudhia J, Michalakes J (2012) Regional climate–weather research and forecasting model. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93:1363–1387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu B, Xu M, Henderson M, Qi Y (2005) Observed trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China, 1960–2000. J Geophys Res 110:D08103. doi:10.1029/2004JD004864

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Liang X-Z, Gao W, Zhang H (2008) Application of climate-weather research and forecasting model (CWRF) in China: domain optimization. Chinese Atmos Sci 32:457–468

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Gao W, Xu M, Wang X, Liang X-Z (2009) China summer precipitation simulations using an optimal ensemble of cumulus schemes. Front Earth Sci China 3:248–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Liang X-Z, Gao W, He Y, Ling T (2011) Regional climate model simulations of the 1998 summer China flood: dependence on initial and lateral boundary conditions. Open Atmos Sci J 5:96–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Small EE, Eltahir EAB (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes with RegCM. J Geophys Res 105(D24):29579–29594

    Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solmon F, Gao X, Pauscher SA, Francisco R, Zakey A, Winter J, Ashfaq M, Syed FS, Bell JL, Diffenbaugh NS, Karmacharya J, Konare A, Martinez D, Rocha RP, Sloan LC, Steiner AL (2007) The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET: regional climate modeling for the developing world. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88:1395–1409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian Y, Leung LR, Chan SJ, Giorgi F (2003) Regional climate effects of aerosols over China: modeling and observation. Tellus 55B:914–934

    Google Scholar 

  • Qian Y, Gong D, Fan J, Leung R, Bennartz R, Chen D, Wang W (2009) Heavy pollution suppresses light rain in China: observations and modeling. J Geophys Res 114(D00K02). doi:10.1029/2008JD011575

  • Qiu J, Cai W, Guo X, Pan A (2009) Dynamics of late spring rainfall reduction in recent decades over southeastern China. J Clim 22:2240–2247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Liang X-Z, Samel AN (2010) AMIP GCM simulations of precipitation variability over the Yangtze River Valley. J Clim 24:2116–2133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Wen Z, Yang S, Li Y (2010) An interdecadal change in southern China summer rainfall around 1992/93. J Clim 23:2389–2403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Yatagai A, Chen M, Hayasaka T, Fukushima Y, Liu C, Yang S (2007) A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation over East Asia. J Hydrol 8:607–626

    Google Scholar 

  • Xin X, Yu R, Zhou T, Wang B (2006) Drought in late spring of South China in recent decades. J Clim 19:3197–3206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Y, Gao X, Shen Y, Xu C, Shi Y, Giorgi F (2009) A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation. Adv Atmos Sci 26:763–772

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu E, Wang H, Sun J (2010) A quick report on a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 3:325–329

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE (1998) Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data. J Clim 11:2628–2644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, Pan X (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Xu Y, Dong W, Cao L, Sparrow M (2006) A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECIS climate model. Geophys Res Lett 33:L24702. doi:10.1029/2006GL027229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Gao X, Ouyang L (2008) Simulation of present climate over China by a regional climate model. J Trop Meteorol 14:19–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou T, Li Z (2002) Simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon by using a variable resolution atmospheric GCM. Clim Dyn 19:167–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou T, Yu R (2006) Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the Globe simulated by coupled climate models. J Clim 19:5843–5858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zou X, Zhai P, Zhang Q (2005) Variations in droughts over China: 1951–2003. Geophys Res Lett 32:L04707. doi:10.1029/2004GL021853

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank Xuejie Gao (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) for kindly providing the MdR simulation data. This research was funded partially by the USDA UV-B Monitoring and Research Program, NREL, Colorado State University, USDA-NRI, 2008-35615-04666, National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951603), and Shanghai Science and Technology Committee Program-Special for EXPO (Grant No.10DZ0581600). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring agencies.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Shuyan Liu & Xin-Zhong Liang

  2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China

    Shuyan Liu, Wei Gao & Xin-Zhong Liang

  3. Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA

    Wei Gao

  4. Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanic Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Xin-Zhong Liang

Authors
  1. Shuyan Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wei Gao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Xin-Zhong Liang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shuyan Liu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Liu, S., Gao, W. & Liang, XZ. A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change. Clim Dyn 41, 1871–1884 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation