Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Variation of the North Atlantic subtropical high western ridge and its implication to Southeastern US summer precipitation

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Variations of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge and their implication to the Southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation were analyzed for the years 1948–2007. The results show that the movement of the NASH western ridge regulates both moisture transport and vertical motion over the SE US, especially in the last three decades, during which the ridge moved westward towards the American continent. When the NASH western ridge is located southwest (SW) of its mean climate position, excessive summer precipitation is observed due to an enhanced moisture transport. In contrast, when the western ridge is located in the northwest (NW), a precipitation deficit prevails as downward motion dominates the region. Composite analysis indicates that SW ridging results mainly from the NASH center’s intensification; whereas NW ridging is likely caused by stationary wave propagation from the eastern Pacific/US western coast. In recent decades, both the SW and NW ridge positions have been observed to increase in frequency. Our results suggest that the increase in the SW ridging consistently follows the NASH’s intensification associated with anthropogenic forcing as projected by coupled climate models. However, the increased frequency of NW ridging tends to follow the positive Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. Thus, the enhanced variability in the SE US summer precipitation in recent decades might be a combined result of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability of the climate system. Results suggest that, as anthropogenic forcing continues to increase, the SE US will experience more frequent wet summers and an increase in the frequency of dry summers during positive PDO phases.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis used in the study is due to following reasons. First, the relatively longer period data availability of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis matches the precipitation data (1948–2007); second, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis reasonably represents the locations of the NASH center and its western ridge comparing with surface observational data (ICOADS); third, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not show discrepancy from other reanalysis data such as the ERA-40 (1958–2002), JRA (1979–2007) for the NASH’s center’s intensity and the western ridge.

  2. As convention, the 850 hPa geopotential height is usually plotted at 60-m intervals with the reference level 1,500 m. For the North Atlantic subtropical high, the 1,500-gpm line is far into the continent while 1,620-gpm isoline is still over the North Atlantic; The 1,560-gpm line is also closely related to the distribution of precipitation and vertical motion over the eastern coast of US (Fig. 1).

  3. To avoid the possible spread of the western ridge among the CMIP3 models and to make results comparable, we used the climatological contour straddling the longitude of 86°W to represent the western edge of the NASH for each model under scenario 20C3M. This longitude is derived according to observed climatological NASH location based on the NCEP reanalysis data (Li et al. 2011).

References

  • Arritt RW, Rink TD, Segal M, Todey DP, Clark CA, Mitchell MJ, Labas KM (1997) The Great Plains low-level jet during the warm season of 1993. Mon Weather Rev 125:2176–2192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barlow M, Nigam S, Berbery EH (2001) ENSO, Pacific decadal variability, and US summertime precipitation, drought, and stream flow. J Clim 14:2105–2128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black RX (1997) Deducing anomalous wave source regions during the life cycles of persistent flow anomalies. J Atmos Sci 54:895–907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan SC, Misra V (2010) A diagnosis of the 1979–2005 extreme rainfall events in the Southeast US with isentropic moisture tracing. Mon Weather Rev 138:1172–1185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen P, Newman M (1998) Rossby wave propagation and the rapid development of upper-level anomalous anticyclones during the 1988 US drought. J Clim 11:2491–2504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook BI, Seager R, Miller RL (2011) Atmospheric circulation anomalies during two persistent North American droughts: 1932–1939 and 1948–1957. Clim Dyn 36:2339–2355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curtis S (2008) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and extreme daily precipitation over the US and Mexico during the hurricane season. Clim Dyn 30:343–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Hayden BP, Gay DA, Phillips WL, Jones GV (1997) The North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. J Clim 10:728–744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diem J (2006) Synoptic-scale controls of summer precipitation in the Southeastern United States. J Clim 19:613–621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franzke C, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F (2001) Teleconnections and low-frequency variability in idealized experiments with two storm tracks. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 127:1321–1339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Furtado JC, Lorenzo ED, Schneider N, Bond NA (2011) North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models. J Clim 24:3049–3067

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gamble DW, Parnell DB, Curtis S (2008) Spatial variability of the Caribbean mid-summer drought and relation to north Atlantic high circulation. Int J Climatol 28:343–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for the heat induced tropical circulation. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 106:447–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gotvald AJ, McCallum BE (2010) Epic flooding in Georgia, 2009: US Geological survey fact sheet 2010–3107, 2p

  • Henderson KG, Vega AJ (1996) Regional precipitation variability in the southeastern United States. Phys Geogr 17:93–112

    Google Scholar 

  • Higgins RW, Shi W, Yarosh E, Joyce R (2000) Improved United States precipitation quality control system and analysis. NCEP/Climate Prediction Center ATLAS No. 7. Camp Springs, MD, 40 pp

  • Honda M, Kushnir Y, Nakamura H, Yamane S, Zebiak SE (2005) Formation, mechanisms, and predictability of the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw in ensemble AGCM simulations. J Clim 25:1423–1434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Q, Feng S, Oglesby RJ (2011) Variations in North American summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. J Clim (in press). doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4060.1

  • Huffman GJ et al (1997) The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:5–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP-NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katz RW, Parlange MB, Tebaldi C (2003) Stochastic modeling of the effects of large-scale circulation on daily weather in the southeastern US. Clim Change 60:189–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knight DB, Davis RE (2009) Contribution of tropical cyclones to extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:D23102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kushnir Y, Seager R, Ting M, Naik N, Nakamura J (2010) Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST influence on North American precipitation variability. J Clim 23:5610–5628

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li W, Li L, Fu R, Deng Y, Wang H (2011) Changes to the North Atlantic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall variability in the Southeastern United States. J Clim 24:1499–1506

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y, Wu G (2004) Progress in the study on the formation of the summertime subtropical anticyclone. Adv Atmos Sci 21:322–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y, Wu G, Ren R (2004) Relationship between the subtropical anticyclone and diabatic heating. J Clim 17:682–698

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Livezey RE, Chen WY (1983) Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon Weather Rev 111:46–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR (2002) The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 58:35–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impact on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manuel J (2008) Drought in the southeast: lessons for water management. Environ Health Perspect 116:A168–A171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA et al (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mo KC, Berbery EH (2004) Low-level jets and the summer precipitation regimes over North America. J Geophys Res Atmos 109:D06117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mo KC, Schemm JE (2008) Relationship between ENSO and drought over the Southeastern United States. Geophys Res Lett 35:L15701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nigam S, Chan SC (2009) On the summertime strengthening of the Northern hemisphere Pacific sea level pressure anticyclone. J Clim 22:1174–1192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Plumb RA (1985) On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J Atmos Sci 42:217–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Murtugudde R, Naik N, Clement A, Gordon N, Miller J (2003) Air-sea interaction and the seasonal cycle of the subtropical anticyclones. J Clim 16:1948–1966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Tzanova A, Nakamura J (2009) Drought in the Southeastern United States: causes, variability over the last millennium and the potential for future hydroclimate change. J Clim 22:5021–5045

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stahle WD, Cleaveland MK (1992) Reconstruction and analysis of spring rainfall over the Southeastern US for the past 1000 years. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 73:1947–1961

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ting M, Wang H (2006) The role of the North American topography on the maintenance of the Great Plains summer low-level jet. J Atmos Sci 63:1056–1068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Fu R, Kumar A, Li W (2010) Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the Southeastern United States during recent decades. J Hydrometeorol 11:1007–1018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weaver SJ, Nigam S (2008) Variability of the Great Plains low-level jet: large-scale circulation context and hydroclimate impacts. J Clim 21:1532–1551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weaver SJ, Schubert S, Wang H (2009) Warm season variations in the low-level circulation and precipitation over the central United States in observations, AMIP simulations, and idealized SST experiment. J Clim 22:5401–5420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu G, Liu Y (2003) Summertime quadruplet heating pattern in the subtropics and the associated atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 30:1201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu G, Liu Y, Zhu X, Li W, Ren R, Duan A, Liang X (2009) Multi-scale forcing and the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon. Ann Geophys-Ger 27:3631–3644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–1993. J Clim 10:1004–1020

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. We thank Drs. M. Susan Lozier, Ming Cai, Amy Clement, Paul A. Baker, Ana Barros, Robert E. Dickinson, and Jiansheng Ye and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments, and Dr. Alex Glass and Ms. Diane Bryson for editorial assistance. This work is supported by startup funds from Duke University and the Nicholas School Office of the Dean. Y. Kushnir was supported by NOAA Grant NA10OAR4310137.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, 321C Old Chem. Bldg., P. O. Box 90227, Durham, NC, 27708, USA

    Laifang Li & Wenhong Li

  2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University Earth Institute, Palisades, NY, USA

    Yochanan Kushnir

Authors
  1. Laifang Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wenhong Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yochanan Kushnir
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wenhong Li.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Li, L., Li, W. & Kushnir, Y. Variation of the North Atlantic subtropical high western ridge and its implication to Southeastern US summer precipitation. Clim Dyn 39, 1401–1412 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1214-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1214-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation