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Incorporating benthic community changes into hydrochemical-based projections of coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification

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Abstract

The existence of coral reefs is dependent on the production and maintenance of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) framework that is produced through calcification. The net production of CaCO3 will likely decline in the future, from both declining net calcification rates (decreasing calcification and increasing dissolution) and shifts in benthic community composition from calcifying organisms to non-calcifying organisms. Here, we present a framework for hydrochemical studies that allows both declining net calcification rates and changes in benthic community composition to be incorporated into projections of coral reef CaCO3 production. The framework involves upscaling net calcification rates for each benthic community type using mapped proportional cover of the benthic communities. This upscaling process was applied to the reef flats at One Tree and Lady Elliot reefs (Great Barrier Reef) and Shiraho Reef (Okinawa), and compared to existing data. Future CaCO3 budgets were projected for Lady Elliot Reef, predicting a decline of 53 % from the present value by end-century (800 ppm CO2) without any changes to benthic community composition. A further 5.7 % decline in net CaCO3 production is expected for each 10 % decline in calcifier cover, and net dissolution is predicted by end-century if calcifier cover drops below 18 % of the present extent. These results show the combined negative effect of both declining net calcification rates and changing benthic community composition on reefs and the importance of considering both processes for determining future reef CaCO3 production.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments greatly improved our manuscript. ECS was funded through a Grant from the CSIRO Wealth from Oceans flagship awarded to Dr Bronte Tilbrook and Dr Andy Steven. SMH gratefully acknowledges funding from a University of Wollongong Return to Work Grant (Faculty of Science).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Remote Sensing Research Centre, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia

    Emily C. Shaw & Stuart R. Phinn

  2. Department of Biology, California State University, Northridge, CA, 91330, USA

    Emily C. Shaw

  3. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, 2522, Australia

    Sarah M. Hamylton

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  1. Emily C. Shaw
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Correspondence to Emily C. Shaw.

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Communicated by Geology Editor Chris Perry

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Shaw, E.C., Hamylton, S.M. & Phinn, S.R. Incorporating benthic community changes into hydrochemical-based projections of coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification. Coral Reefs 35, 739–750 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-016-1407-2

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