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The deterministic SIS epidemic model in a Markovian random environment

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Abstract

We consider the classical deterministic susceptible-infective-susceptible epidemic model, where the infection and recovery rates depend on a background environmental process that is modeled by a continuous time Markov chain. This framework is able to capture several important characteristics that appear in the evolution of real epidemics in large populations, such as seasonality effects and environmental influences. We propose computational approaches for the determination of various distributions that quantify the evolution of the number of infectives in the population.

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Acknowledgments

Financial support for this work was provided by the Government of Spain (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness) and the European Commission through the Project MTM-2011-23864.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics, University of Athens, Panepistemioupolis, 15784, Athens, Greece

    Antonis Economou

  2. Faculty of Statistical Studies, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Maria Jesus Lopez-Herrero

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  1. Antonis Economou
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  2. Maria Jesus Lopez-Herrero
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Correspondence to Maria Jesus Lopez-Herrero.

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Economou, A., Lopez-Herrero, M.J. The deterministic SIS epidemic model in a Markovian random environment. J. Math. Biol. 73, 91–121 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-015-0943-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-015-0943-7

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