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Climate Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia

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Abstract

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters—notably, rising average temperature—there is a clear overlap between farmers’ observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

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Notes

  1. An exception is the study by Nyanga et al. (2011), which examines farmers’ perceptions of climate change in Zambia and provides useful insight into some of the adaptation strategies that farmers employ. However, their study relies solely on farmers’ accounts of weather changes and does not interrogate these against meteorological data. Furthermore, it focused narrowly on conservation agriculture as a response to climate change, and this emphasis likely obscures other elements of the farmers’ experiences of, and adaptions to, climate change.

  2. Agro-ecological region II is further divided into IIA and IIB, a division that is based on differences in soil type and rainfall (with sandier soils and less rainfall in IIB). As just 7–8 % of the population of rural Zambia reside in region IIB in the west (CSO/MAL/IAPRI 2012; Thurlow et al. 2008), our analysis is focuses on the eastern portion of the region (IIA).

  3. Chipata meteorological station has 1.78 % missing rainfall observations and 10.13 % missing temperature observations. For Choma these values are 0.14 % (rainfall) and 11.20 % (temperature), and for Mbala these values are 0.33 % (rainfall) and 21.77 % (temperature).

  4. This paper reports τ b. The MK tau can be understood as the degree to which the climate variable and year are related, with values larger in absolute magnitude indicating a stronger association.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the United States Aid for International Development (USAID) Bureau for Food Security (Associate Award AIDOAA-LA-11-00010 under Food Security III, CDG-A-00-02-00021-00). The authors are also grateful to the Zambia Meteorological Department and the USAID Zambian Mission for providing the meteorological data used in this study. The authors further thank Eric W. Crawford and Jennifer Olson of Michigan State University for their support and comments on an earlier version of this paper. The paper benefitted from the comments of two anonymous reviewers. Any remaining errors are solely the responsibility of the authors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Brian P. Mulenga

  2. Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Ayala Wineman & Nicholas J. Sitko

Authors
  1. Brian P. Mulenga
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  2. Ayala Wineman
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  3. Nicholas J. Sitko
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Brian P. Mulenga.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Appendices

Appendix 1 Focus Group Discussion Guide

A. Changes in crop productivity

  1. 1.

    Have you noticed any changes in crop productivity (yields) over the past 20–30 years?

  2. 2.

    For which crops has productivity changed?

  3. 3.

    How much have yields changed?

  4. 4.

    When did these changes occur?

  5. 5.

    Why did these changes occur? (Leave open-ended and ask for examples)

  6. 6.

    Have the changes affected how you cultivate? How? (e.g., changes in crop or crop variety, fertilizer use, etc.)

B. Livestock

  1. 1.

    Have you noticed any changes in livestock, in terms of health or population size, over the past 20–30 years?

  2. 2.

    Which livestock have experienced a change?

  3. 3.

    How much have they changed?

  4. 4.

    When did these changes occur?

  5. 5.

    Why did these changes occur?

  6. 6.

    Have the changes affected your farm or family? How?

C. Water availability

  1. 1.

    Have you have noticed any changes over the past 20–30 years in the quantity of water available for you, your crops, and your livestock?

  2. 2.

    Describe any changes:

(a) Depth of ground water (well or bore hole; ask for the difference in meters, if possible)

(b) Seasonality of streams and amount of water in streams

3. When did these changes occur?

4. Why did these changes occur?

5. Has it affected your household or farming practices?

6. Have you changed anything in response to these water changes?

D. Climate

  1. 1.

    Have you noticed any changes over the past 20–30 years in temperatures and rainfall?

  2. 2.

    Describe any changes:

    (a) Temperature during different seasons

    (b) Amount of rainfall during the growing season

    (c) Timing of rainfall

    (d) Rainfall variability

    (e) Occurrence of weather extremes, such as droughts or flood (When did these events occur?)

  3. 3.

    Why did these changes occur?

  4. 4.

    How have they affected your household or farming practices?

E. Wealth and gender differences

  1. 1.

    What are the differences between rich and poor people in your village?

  2. 2.

    Are there differences between rich and poor people in the impact of climate change or adaptation to climate change? How so?

  3. 3.

    Are there any differences between men and women in the impact of climate change or adaptation to climate change? How so?

F. Other impacts and responses

  1. 1.

    In addition to what we’ve already discussed, are there any other impacts of climate change that have affected your village?

  2. 2.

    Have you responded in any other ways to these changes?

Appendix 2

See Tables 7–9.

Table 7 Temperature trends at meteorological stations, omitting years with ≥25 % missing observations
Full size table
Table 8 Temperature trends at meteorological stations, with no imputed observations
Full size table
Table 9 Rainfall trends at meteorological stations, 1980–2010
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Mulenga, B.P., Wineman, A. & Sitko, N.J. Climate Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia. Environmental Management 59, 291–306 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-016-0780-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-016-0780-5

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