Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A Simple Model that Identifies Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Estuarine and Estuary-Ecotone Habitat Locations for Salmonids in Oregon, USA

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Diadromous aquatic species that cross a diverse range of habitats (including marine, estuarine, and freshwater) face different effects of climate change in each environment. One such group of species is the anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Studies of the potential effects of climate change on salmonids have focused on both marine and freshwater environments. Access to a variety of estuarine habitat has been shown to enhance juvenile life-history diversity, thereby contributing to the resilience of many salmonid species. Our study is focused on the effect of sea-level rise on the availability, complexity, and distribution of estuarine, and low-freshwater habitat for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead (anadromous O. mykiss), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) along the Oregon Coast under future climate change scenarios. Using LiDAR, we modeled the geomorphologies of five Oregon estuaries and estimated a contour associated with the current mean high tide. Contour intervals at 1- and 2-m increments above the current mean high tide were generated, and changes in the estuary morphology were assessed. Because our analysis relied on digital data, we compared three types of digital data in one estuary to assess the utility of different data sets in predicting the changes in estuary shape. For each salmonid species, changes in the amount and complexity of estuarine edge habitats varied by estuary. The simple modeling approach we applied can also be used to identify areas that may be most amenable to pre-emptive restoration actions to mitigate or enhance salmonid habitat under future climatic conditions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Beamish RJ, Mahnken C (2001) A critical size and period hypothesis to explain natural regulation of salmon abundance and the linkage to climate and climate change. Prog Oceanogr 49:423–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beechie T, Imaki H, Greene J, Wade A, Wu H, Pess G, Roni P, Kimball J, Stanford J, Kiffney P, Mantua N (2012) Restoring salmon habitat for a changing climate. River Res Appl. doi:10.1002/rra.2590

    Google Scholar 

  • Beyer HL (2004) Hawth’s analysis tools for ArcGIS. Hawthstools, Spatial Ecology LLC, Marshfield, WI. http://www.spatialecology.com/htools. Accessed 10 Apr 2013

  • Bindoff NL, Willebrand J, Artale V, Cazenave A, Gregory J, Gulev S, Hanawa K, Le Quéré C, Levitus S, Nojiri Y, Shum CK, Talley LD, Unnikrishnan A (2007) Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Avery KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 387–432

    Google Scholar 

  • Bisson PA, Dunham JB, Reeves GH (2009) Freshwater ecosystems and resilience of Pacific salmon: habitat management based on natural variability. Ecol Soc 14:45

    Google Scholar 

  • Bond MH, Hayes SA, Hanson CV, MacFarlane RB (2008) Marine survival of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) enhanced by a seasonally closed estuary. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:2242–2252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bottom DL, Jones KK, Cornwell TJ, Gray A, Simenstad CA (2005a) Patterns of Chinook salmon migration and residency in the Salmon River estuary (Oregon). Estuarine Coast Shelf Sci 64:79–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bottom DL, Simenstad CA, Burke J, Baptista AM, Jay DA, Jones KK, Casillas E, Schiewe MH (2005b) Salmon at river’s end: the role of the estuary in the decline and recovery of Columbia River salmon. US Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum, NMFS-NWFSC-68

  • Bottom DL, Jones KK, Simenstad CA, Smith CL (2009) Reconnecting social and ecological resilience in salmon ecosystems. Ecol Soc 14:5

    Google Scholar 

  • Callaway JC, Nyman JA, DeLaune RD (1996) Sediment accretion in coastal wetlands: a review and a simulation model of processes. Curr Top Wetl Biogeochem 2:2–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Committee on Sea Level Rise in California, Oregon, and Washington; Board on Earth Sciences and Resources; Ocean Studies Board; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council, prepublication (2012) National Academies Press, ISBN 978-0-309-25594-3, p 250

  • Craft C, Clough J, Ehman J, Joye S, Park R, Pennings S, Guo H, Machmuller M (2009) Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services. Front Ecol Environ 7:73–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crozier LG, Hendry AP, Lawson PW, Quinn TP, Mantua NJ, Battin J, Shaw RG, Huey RB (2008) Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon. Evol Appl 1:252–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • StreamNet GIS Data (2003) Metadata for Pacific Northwest coho salmon fish distribution spatial dataset. StreamNet, Portland, Oregon, USA. http://www.streamnet.org. Accessed 10 Apr 2013

  • Eaton JG, Scheller RM (1996) Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States. Limnol Oceanog 41:1109–1115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ESRI (2008) ArcMap version 9.3.1. Redlands, California

    Google Scholar 

  • Fletcher CH, Van Pelt JE, Brush GS, Sherman J (1993) Tidal wetland record of Holocene sea-level movements and climate history. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 102:177–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flitcroft RL, Burnett KM, Reeves GH, Ganio LM (2012) Do network relationships matter? Comparing network and instream habitat variables to explain densities of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in mid-coastal Oregon, USA. Aquat Conserv Mar Freshw Ecosyst 22:288–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folke C, Carpenter S, Walker B, Scheffer M, Elmqvist T, Gunderson L, Holling CS (2004) Regime shifts, resilience and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 35:557–581

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill SK, Schultz JR (eds) (2001) Tidal datums and their application NOAA special publication NOS Co-OPS 1. Silver Springs, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleason MG, Newkirk S, Merrifield MS, Howard J, Cox R, Webb M, Koepcke J, Stranko B, Taylor B, Beck MW, Fuller R, Dye P, Vander Schaaf D, Carter J (2011) A conservation assessment of West Coast (USA) estuaries. The Nature Conservancy, Arlington

    Google Scholar 

  • Glick P, Clough J, Nunley B (2007) Sea-level rise and coastal habitats in the Pacific Northwest: an analysis for puget sound, Southwestern Washington, and Northwestern Oregon. In: National Wildlife Association Report, USA, 2007

  • Gray A, Simenstad CA, Bottom DL, Cornwell TJ (2002) Contrasting functional performance of juvenile salmonid habitat in recovering wetlands of the Salmon River estuary, Oregon, USA. Restor Ecol 10:514–526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groot C, Margolis L (eds) (1991) Pacific salmon life histories. University of British Columbia Press, Vancouver

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayes SA, Bond MH, Hanson CV, Freund EV (2008) Steelhead growth in a small central California watershed: upstream and estuarine rearing patterns. Trans Am Fish Soc 137:114–128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Healey M (2011) The cumulative impacts of climate change on Frasier River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and implications for management. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 68:718–737

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hering DK, Bottom DL, Prentice EF, Jones KK, Fleming IA (2010) Tidal movements and residency of subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an Oregon salt marsh channel. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 67:524–533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irish JL, Lillycrop WJ (1999) Scanning laser mapping of the coastal zone: the SHOALS system. J Photogramm Rem Sensing 54:123–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irme SR, Bogaert J (2004) The fractal dimension as a measure of the quality of habitats. Acta Biotheor 52:41–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson GE, Dieferderfer HL, Thom RM, Roegner GC, Ebberts BD, Skalski JR, Borde AB, Dawley EM, Coleman AM, Woodruff DL, Breithaupt SA, Cameron AS, Corbett CA, Donley EE, Jay DA, Ke Y, Leffler KE, McNeil CB, Studebaker CA, Tagestad JD (2012) Evaluation of cumulative ecosystem response to restoration projects in the lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2010. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Jones DS, Fleming IA, McLaughlin LK, Jones KK (2008) Feeding ecology of cutthroat trout in the Salmon River Estuary, Oregon. In: Connolly PJ, Williams TH, Gresswell RE (eds) The 2005 coastal cutthroat trout symposium: status, management, biology, and conservation. Oregon Chapter, Am Fish Soc, Portland, pp 144–151

  • Kennedy VS (1990) Anticipated effects of climate change on estuarine and coastal fisheries. Fisheries 15:16–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koski KV (2009) The fate of coho salmon nomads: the story of an estuarine-rearing strategy promoting resilience. Ecol Soc 14:4

    Google Scholar 

  • Levy DA, Northcote TG (1982) Juvenile salmon residency in a marsh area of the Fraser River estuary. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 39:270–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lichatowich J (1999) Salmon without rivers a history of the Pacific salmon crisis. Island Press, Coveto

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnusson A, Hilborn R (2003) Estuarine influence on survival rates of coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) released from hatcheries on the U.S. Pacific Coast Estuaries 26:1094–1103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua N, Tohver I, Hamlet A (2010) Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington state. Climatic Change 102:187–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martins EG, Hinch SG, Patterson DA, Hague MJ, Cookes SJ, Miller KM, LaPointe MF, English KK, Farrell AP (2011) Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Global Change Biol 17:99–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCormick SD, Saunders RL (1987) Preparatory physiological adaptations for marine life of salmonids: osmoregulation, growth and metabolism. Am Fish Soc Symp 1:211–229

    Google Scholar 

  • Mcleod E, Poulter B, Hinkel J, Reyes E, Salm R (2010) Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: a review of models and their applications. Ocean Coast Manag 53:507–517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller BA, Sadro S (2003) Residence time and seasonal movements of juvenile coho salmon in the ecotone and lower estuary of Winchester Creek, South Slough, Oregon. Trans Am Fish Soc 132:546–559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montgomery DR, Beamer EM, Pess GR, Quinn TP (1999) Channel type and salmonid spawning distribution and abundance. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56:377–387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morris JT, Sundareshwar PV, Nietch CT, Kjerfve B, Cahoon DR (2002) Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Ecology 83:2869–2877

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mote PW, Salathé EP Jr (2010) Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 102:29–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olff H, DeLeeuw J, Bakker JP, Platerink RJ, Van Wijnen HJ (1997) Vegetation succession and herbivory in a salt marsh: changes induced by sea level rise and silt deposition along an elevational gradient. J Ecol 85:799–814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oregon Estuary Plan Book (1987) Department of land conservation and development. Salem, Oregon

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfeffer WT, Harper JT, O’Neel S (2008) Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321:1340–1343

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Reed D (1995) The response of coastal marshes to sea-level rise: survival or submergence? Earth Surf Process Landforms 20:39–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reeves GH, Benda LE, Burnett KM, Bisson PA, Sedell JR (1995) A disturbance-based ecosystem approach to maintaining and restoring freshwater habitats of evolutionarily significant units of anadromous salmonids in the Pacific Northwest. Am Fish Soc Symp 17:334–349

    Google Scholar 

  • Register Federal (2011) Listing endangered and threatened Species: threatened status for the Oregon Coast Coho Salmon Evolutionarily Significant Unit. Fed Regist 76:35755–35770

    Google Scholar 

  • Reimers PE (1973) The length of residence of juvenile fall Chinook salmon in Sixes River. Oregon Res Rep Fish Comm Oregon 4:1–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Reusch AS, Torgersen CE, Lawler JJ, Olden JD, Peterson EE, Volk CJ, Lawrence DJ (2012) Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A. Conservation Biol 26:873–882

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simenstad CA, Cordell JR (2000) Ecological assessment criteria for restoring anadromous salmonid habitat in Pacific Northwest estuaries. Ecolog Eng 15:283–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • State of Oregon Division of State Lands (1989) Heads of tide for coastal streams in Oregon. Oregon Department of State Lands. Salem, Oregon

    Google Scholar 

  • USGS (1985) Quadrangle number 45123-A8-TF-024. Neskowin

  • Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527–21532

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Volk EC, Bottom DL, Jones KK, Simenstad CA (2010) Reconstructing juvenile Chinook salmon life history in the Salmon River Estuary, Oregon, using otolith microchemistry and microstructure. Trans Am Fish Soc 139:535–549

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waples RS, Beechie T, Pess GR (2009) Evolutionary history, habitat disturbance regimes, and anthropogenic changes: what do these mean for resilience of Pacific salmon populations? Ecol Soc 14:3

    Google Scholar 

  • Wenger SJ, Isaak DJ, Luce CH, Neville HM, Fausch KD, Dunham JB, Dauwalter DC, Young MK, Elsner MM, Rieman BE, Hamlet AF, Williams JE (2011) Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:14175–14180

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McKean J, Nagel D, Tonina D, Bailey P, Wright CW, Bohn C, Hayegandhi A (2009) Remote sensing of channels and riparian zones with a narrow-beam aquatic-terrestrial LIDAR. Remote Sens 1(4):1065–1096

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The analysis presented in this study was funded by the USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station. We would like to thank the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife for their work documenting salmonid habitat throughout Oregon. We would also like to thank the LiDAR Consortium that organized and flew the Oregon Coastal Province. We thank the Siuslaw National Forest for making the low-tide LiDAR of the Salmon River Estuary available to us for this work. Additionally, we thank Deborah Reusser of the USGS for her thoughtful comments regarding the effects of SLR on estuarine habitats. The comments from four anonymous reviewers significantly improved the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR, 97331-8550, USA

    Rebecca Flitcroft, Kelly Burnett & Kelly Christiansen

Authors
  1. Rebecca Flitcroft
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kelly Burnett
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kelly Christiansen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rebecca Flitcroft.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Flitcroft, R., Burnett, K. & Christiansen, K. A Simple Model that Identifies Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Estuarine and Estuary-Ecotone Habitat Locations for Salmonids in Oregon, USA. Environmental Management 52, 196–208 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-013-0074-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-013-0074-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation