Nonlinear logistic regression model for outcomes after endourologic procedures: a novel predictor

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to design a thorough and practical nonlinear logistic regression model that can be used for outcome prediction after various forms of endourologic intervention. Input variables and outcome data from 382 renal units endourologically treated at a single institution were used to build and cross-validate an independently designed nonlinear logistic regression model. Model outcomes were stone-free status and need for a secondary procedure. The model predicted stone-free status with sensitivity 75.3 % and specificity 60.4 %, yielding a positive predictive value (PPV) of 75.3 % and negative predictive value (NPV) of 60.4 %, with classification accuracy of 69.6 %. Receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) was 0.749. The model predicted the need for a secondary procedure with sensitivity 30 % and specificity 98.3 %, yielding a PPV of 60 % and NPV of 94.2 %. ROC AUC was 0.863. The model had equivalent predictive value to a traditional logistic regression model for the secondary procedure outcome. This study is proof-of-concept that a nonlinear regression model adequately predicts key clinical outcomes after shockwave lithotripsy, ureteroscopic lithotripsy, and percutaneous nephrolithotomy. This model holds promise for further optimization via dataset expansion, preferably with multi-institutional data, and could be developed into a predictive nomogram in the future.