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Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso

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Abstract

Drug-related homicides in Ciudad Juárez drastically increased beginning in 2008. Few studies have been carried out which assess the economic impacts of crime and homicides. Furthermore, the existing literature generally lacks regional assessment efforts. Because of geographical proximity and close economic ties, this paper reviews some of the potential impacts the Ciudad Juárez homicides may have on the El Paso regional economy. A time series data approach is employed to quantify links between organized crime homicides in Ciudad Juárez and economic conditions in El Paso as measured by the metropolitan business cycle index and total nonagricultural employment. Findings indicate that fluctuations in the number of Ciudad Juárez homicides impact both variables in statistically significant manners at multiple time lags.

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Notes

  1. This data series is no longer being updated. Monthly frequency data on the number of homicides in Mexico are available at the municipality level beginning in 1990 from the national statistics institute (INEGI 2014) and at the state level beginning in 1997 from the National Public Security System (SNSP 2014). However, the latter datasets do not distinguish between homicides related to organized criminal activity and other types of homicides. This distinction is important because organized crime-related homicides are often calculated to instill fear among rivals and the community at large and typically have a relatively high public profile (Molzahn et al. 2013).

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Acknowledgments

Financial support for this research was provided by El Paso Water Utilities, Hunt Communities, Texas Department of Transportation, the UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade, the City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget and a UTEP College of Business Administration Faculty Research Grant. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by Charles Boehmer.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CBRE Group, Inc., Suite 2100, 221 North Kansas Street, El Paso, TX, 79901, USA

    Pedro Niño Jr.

  2. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 301 East Main Street, El Paso, TX, 79901, USA

    Roberto A. Coronado

  3. Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, 79968-0543, USA

    Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Adam G. Walke

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  1. Pedro Niño Jr.
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  2. Roberto A. Coronado
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  3. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
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  4. Adam G. Walke
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Correspondence to Roberto A. Coronado.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of CBRE Group, Inc., the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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Niño, P., Coronado, R.A., Fullerton, T.M. et al. Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso. Empir Econ 49, 1543–1559 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0924-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0924-0

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