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About probability-like measures for entire theories

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“...I think, on the whole, one theory fits nearly everything. That is, if you admit one coincidence—and I think one coincidence is allowable. More than one, of course, is unlikely ...”

5. Summary

It is discursively argued that a much closer rapport between the methodologies implicitly taught in Economic Theory and in Statistics is required and that the necessary interdisciplinary bridge can be provided, and clarification attained, through the study of logical measure functions of theKemeny-Carnap type. It is also argued that subjectivistic axiom systems of probability, while valuable in their own right and as bases for behavior theories, cannot by themselves render the study of logical measure functions superfluous.

Elementary aspects of these functions are then explained, with somewhat more detailed references toKemeny’s measuresm ands and a proposed degree-of-theoretization measure, whose applicability to economics is negatively appraised. Finally,Carnap’s degree-of-confirmation functions are briefly dealt with, but throughout the paper the emphasis is on those properties of logical measure functions which donot primarily bear on statistical inference and estimation).

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Prof. Dr. E. M. Fels, 2126 CL, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh 13, Penna., USA.

The Murder at the Vicarage. New York: Dell, 1961, p. 197 (Dodd, Mead & Co., 1930).

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Fels, E.M. About probability-like measures for entire theories. Metrika 7, 1–22 (1963). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02613958

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