Abstract
A model is described in which damage to a single intracellular locus can lead to a tumorigenic transformation. Assuming a large number of independent intracellular loci to be at risk and assuming that damage to a locus sufficient to cause a tumorigenic transformation occurs with probability greater than zero for all doses greater than zero, leads to the use of the Weibull distribution to characterize the probability of a nonspontaneous tumorigenic cellular transformation occurring after exposure to a given dose of carcinogen. The excess lifetime tumor incidence (i.e., the proportion of tumor bearers) above the spontaneous incidence is used as an estimate of the non-spontaneous incidence and is characterized by a tumor incidence function that represents the probability of occurrence of one or more non-spontaneous tumorigenic cellular transformations amongN(D) independent surviving cells per individual, after exposure to a doseD of carcinogen. The tumor incidence function is fitted to published data for the excess tumor incidence after exposure of animals or humans to ionizing radiation and after exposure of animals to chemical carcinogens.
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Scott, B.R. A dose-response model for estimating lifetime tumor risks when cell killing occurs. Bltn Mathcal Biology 43, 487–501 (1981). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02459435
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02459435