Global carbon dioxide emissions scenarios: Sensitivity to social and technological factors in three regions
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO2 emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.
- Ausubel, J.H. (1996) The liberation of the environment. Daedalus 125: pp. 1-17
- Birdsall, N.: 1992, ‘Another look at population growth and global warming’, Policy Research Working Papers. World Bank, 1–45.
- Bongaarts, J. (1992) Population growth and global warming. Population and Development Review 18: pp. 299-319 CrossRef
- Bos, E., Vu, M.T., Massiah, E. and Bulatao, R.A.: 1994, ‘World population projections’, World Bank.
- Cline, W. (1992) The Economics of Global Warming. Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
- Cohen, J.E. (1995) How Many People Can The Earth Support. Norton, New York
- Costanza, R., Daly, H.E. (1992) Natural capital and sustainable development. Conservation Biology 6: pp. 37-46 CrossRef
- Daily, G.C., Ehrlich, P.R. (1992) Population, sustainability, and earth’s carrying capacity. Bio-Science 42: pp. 761-771
- Daly, H.E., Townsend, K.N. eds. (1993) Valuing the Earth. MIT Press, Cambridge
- Ehrlich, P.R., Holdren, J.P. (1971) Impact of population growth. Science 171: pp. 1212-1217
- Gaskins, D., Weyant, J. (1993) EMF-12: Model comparisons of the costs of reducing CO2 emissions. American Economic Review 83: pp. 318-323
- Goulder, L. and Schneider, S.H.: 1998, ‘Induced Technological Change, Crowding Out, And the Attractiveness of CO2 Emissions Abatement’,Resource and Energy Economics (submitted).
- Hoffert, M.I., Caldeira, K., Jain, A.K., Haites, E.F., Harvey, L.D.D., Potter, S.D., Schlesinger, M.E., Schneider, S.H., Watts, R.G., Wigley, T.M.L. and Wuebbles, D.J: 1998, Energy Implications of CO2 Stabilization,Nature (submitted).
- Holdren, J. (1991) Population and the energy problem. Population and Environment 12: pp. 231-255 CrossRef
- Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J., Ephraums, eds. (1990) Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Houghton, J.T., Callander, B.A., Varney, S.K. eds. (1992) Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Bruce, J., Hoesung, Lee, Callander, B.A., Haites, E., Harris, N., Maskell, K eds. (1994) Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., Maskell, K. eds. (1996) Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H. eds. (1996) Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Bruce, J.P., Lee, H., Haites, E.F. eds. (1996) Climate Change 1995. Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Johansson, T.B., Kelly, H., Reddy, A.K.N., Williams, R.H. eds. (1993) Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity. Island Press, Washington, D.C.
- Kaya, Y., Nakicenovic, N., Nordhaus, W.D., Toth, F.L. eds. (1993) Costs, Impacts, and Benefits of CO2 Mitigation. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Land, K.C., Schneider, S.H. (1987) Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms. Climatic Change 11: pp. 7-34 CrossRef
- Morgan, M.G., Dowlatabadi, H. (1996) Learning from integrated assessment of climate change. Climatic Change 34: pp. 337-368 CrossRef
- Morgan, M.G., Keith, D.W. (1995) Subjective judgments by climate experts. Environmental Science and Technology 29: pp. 468A-476A
- Nakicenovic, N. (1996) Freeing energy from carbon. Daedalus 125: pp. 95-112
- Rahman, A., Robins, N., Roncerel, A. (1993) Exploding the Population Myth-Consumption versus Population: Which is the Climate Bomb?. Castle Cary Press, England
- Root, T.L., Schneider, S.H. (1995) Ecology and climate: research strategies and implications. Science 269: pp. 331-341
- Santer, B.D., Taylor, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., Johns, T.C., Jones, P.D., Karoly, D.J., Mitchell, J.F.B., Oort, A.H., Penner, J.E., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M.D., Stouffer, R.J., Tett, S. (1996) A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature 382: pp. 39-46 CrossRef
- Schneider, S.H.: 1998, ‘Kyoto Protocol: The Unfinished Agenda’ Editorial inClimatic Change 39(1), 1–21.
- Schneider, S.H. (1997) Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions?. Environmental Modelling and Assessment 2: pp. 229-248 CrossRef
- Schneider, S.H. (1994) Detecting climatic change signals: Are there any ‘fingerprints’?. Science 263: pp. 341-347
- Schneider, S.H., Goulder, L. (1997) Achieving carbon dioxide concentration targets: what needs to be done now. Nature 389: pp. 13-13 CrossRef
- World Economic and Social Survey 1995: Current Trends and Policies in the World Economy. United Nations, New York
- Wigley, T.M.L., Richels, R., Edmonds, J.A. (1996) Economic and environmental choices in the stabilizations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nature 379: pp. 240-243 CrossRef
- Global carbon dioxide emissions scenarios: Sensitivity to social and technological factors in three regions
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Volume 2, Issue 4 , pp 373-404
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors