, Volume 31, Issue 4, pp 552-558

Multivariate analysis of risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhosis

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Abstract

To elucidate the risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver cirrhosis (LC), we examined 204 cirrhotic patients negative for hepatitis B surface antigen and positive for HCV antibodies. The independent influence of various clinical characteristics in these patients was analyzed by multiple logistic regression, and the risk factors for HCC were identified. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified and ranked the following four risk factors: male sex (P<0.001), habitual heavy drinking (P<0.005), hepatitis B virus antibody positivity (anti-HBs and/or anti-HBc,P<0.05), and age greater than 60 years (P<0.05). The odds ratio of HCC was 4.20 (95% confidence interval; CI, 1.80–9.78) in male patients, 3.27 (95% CI, 1.46–7.30) in habitual heavy drinkers, 2.01 (95% CI, 1.01–3.99) in patients positive for hepatitis B virus antibodies, and 2.06 (95% CI, 1.00–4.23) in patients older than 60 years. The cumulative occurrence rates of HCC after blood transfusion were significantly higher in habitual heavy drinkers (4.8%, 49.4%, and 74.7% at 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively) than in non-drinkers (0%, 21.0%, and 23.3% at 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively,P<0.0003). The mean interval for progression to LC after blood transfusion was significantly shorter in the habitual heavy drinkers than in the non-drinkers (22.4±4.4 years vs 28.4±3.9 years;P<0.0003). This multivariate analysis revealed that habitual heavy drinking and hepatitis B virus antibody positivity are significant risk factors for HCC in HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

This work was presented in preliminary form at the annual meeting of the American Association for Study of Liver Diseases, New Orleans, May 16, 1994 and published as an abstract inGastroenterology 14: A875, 1994.