Journal of Gastroenterology

, Volume 31, Issue 4, pp 552–558

Multivariate analysis of risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhosis

  • Toshiya Chiba
  • Yasushi Matsuzaki
  • Masato Abei
  • Junichi Shoda
  • Tatsuya Aikawa
  • Naomi Tanaka
  • Toshiaki Osuga
Liver, Pancreas, and Biliary Tract

DOI: 10.1007/BF02355056

Cite this article as:
Chiba, T., Matsuzaki, Y., Abei, M. et al. J Gastroenterol (1996) 31: 552. doi:10.1007/BF02355056

Abstract

To elucidate the risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver cirrhosis (LC), we examined 204 cirrhotic patients negative for hepatitis B surface antigen and positive for HCV antibodies. The independent influence of various clinical characteristics in these patients was analyzed by multiple logistic regression, and the risk factors for HCC were identified. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified and ranked the following four risk factors: male sex (P<0.001), habitual heavy drinking (P<0.005), hepatitis B virus antibody positivity (anti-HBs and/or anti-HBc,P<0.05), and age greater than 60 years (P<0.05). The odds ratio of HCC was 4.20 (95% confidence interval; CI, 1.80–9.78) in male patients, 3.27 (95% CI, 1.46–7.30) in habitual heavy drinkers, 2.01 (95% CI, 1.01–3.99) in patients positive for hepatitis B virus antibodies, and 2.06 (95% CI, 1.00–4.23) in patients older than 60 years. The cumulative occurrence rates of HCC after blood transfusion were significantly higher in habitual heavy drinkers (4.8%, 49.4%, and 74.7% at 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively) than in non-drinkers (0%, 21.0%, and 23.3% at 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively,P<0.0003). The mean interval for progression to LC after blood transfusion was significantly shorter in the habitual heavy drinkers than in the non-drinkers (22.4±4.4 years vs 28.4±3.9 years;P<0.0003). This multivariate analysis revealed that habitual heavy drinking and hepatitis B virus antibody positivity are significant risk factors for HCC in HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

Key words

hepatocellular carcinomahepatitis C virushepatitis B virusalcohol drinking

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • Toshiya Chiba
    • 1
  • Yasushi Matsuzaki
    • 1
  • Masato Abei
    • 1
  • Junichi Shoda
    • 1
  • Tatsuya Aikawa
    • 2
  • Naomi Tanaka
    • 1
  • Toshiaki Osuga
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Medicine, Institute of Clinical MedicineUniversity of TsukubaTsukuba, IbarakiJapan
  2. 2.Aikawa HospitalMito, IbarakiJapan