pure and applied geophysics

, Volume 135, Issue 1, pp 125-133

First online:

What do climate models tell us about global warming?

  • Christopher EssexAffiliated withDepartment of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario

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It has become widely accepted that an increase in the infrared optical depth of the atmosphere must lead to an increase in the global surface temperature. It is demonstrated here that this need not be so, implying a limited predictive capability for modern climate models.

Key words

Global warming greenhouse effect heat radiation climate models physical invariance ad hoc invariance convection albedo