Abstract
Winter temperatures in the Netherlands for the period 1634–1977 (344 years) have been analysed for the years in odd and even solar cycles separately. It is found that on average the odd-cycle years have lower and more variable winter temperatures than the even-cycle years. The indicated differences are statistically significant and show up in the 17th and 18th as well as in the more recent centuries. Most probably the effect is caused by an observed slight difference in the preferred location (Iceland or Scandinavia) of North Atlantic pressure systems in alternate solar cycles.
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Notes and References
Schuurmans, C. J. E.: 1975, ‘Proc. Symp. Possible Relationships between Solar Activity and Meteorological Phenomena’, Greenbelt, November 1973, NASA, SP-366, 161–162.
IJnsen, F.: 1975, ‘A Weak, but Statistical Significant Indication for a 22-Year Cycle in Dutch Winter Weather has Indeed been Found’, Zenit 5, 183–184 (in Dutch).
Labrijn, A.: 1945, ‘The Climate of the Netherlands daring the Last Two and a Half Centuries’, Med. en Verh. No. 49, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, De Bilt.
De Vries, J.: 1975, ‘Climate History and the Economy: New Evidence and New Interpretations’, Draft Report Dept. of History, Univ. of California, Berkeley.
De Vries, J.: 1977, ‘Histoire du climat et économie: des faits nouveaux, une interprétation différente’, Ann. Economies Sociétés Civilisations 32, 198–227.
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Waldmeier, M.: 1961, The Sunspot-Activity in the Years 1610–1960, Zürich, p. 18.
Solar cycles during the 17th century, known as a period of low sunspot numbers, were treated in the same way as the others, namely by adopting the years of cycle minima as given in [6]. The most recent cycle which had its maximum in 1969, is an even-numbered cycle (cycle 20).
See Kendall, M. G. and Stuart, A.: 1958, The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. I, (Ch. Griffin and Co., London, p. 381).
Dixon, W. J. and Massey, F. J.: 1969, Introduction to Statistical Analyses, McGraw Hill, Inc., New York.
Apart from that it gives a preliminary answer to the much debated question, whether or not generally cooler conditions go along with a more variable climate. From the points in Figure 2 one infers a nearly linear relation: standard deviations being indeed higher when the mean temperatures are lower. Of course, this effect is directly related to the non-normality of the frequency distribution of winter temperatures as shown in Figure 1.
Willett, H. C.: 1965, ‘Solar-Climatic Relationships in the Light of Standardized Climatic Data’, J. Atmos, Sci. 22, 120–128.
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Schuurmans, C.J.E. Influence of solar activity on winter temperatures: New climatological evidence . Climatic Change 1, 231–237 (1978). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00166176
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00166176