Climate change in Yellowstone National Park: Is the drought-related risk of wildfires increasing?
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
The increased frequency of wildfires in the United States has become a common prediction associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases. In this investigation, variations in annual wildfire data in Yellowstone National Park are compared to variations in historical climate conditions for the area. Univariate and multivariate analytical techniques reveal that (a) summer temperatures in the Park are increasing, (b) January-June precipitation levels are decreasing, and (c) variations in burn area within the Park are significantly related to the observed variations in climate. Outputs from four different general circulation model simulations for 2 × CO2 are included in the analyses; model predictions for increasing aridity in the Yellowstone Park area are generally in agreement with observed trends in the historical climate records.
- Arno, S. F.: 1980, ‘Forest Fire History in the Northern Rockies’, Journal of Forestry 78, 460–465.
- Barrett, S. W. and Arno, S. F.: 1990, ‘Fire History of the Lamar River Drainage, Yellowstone National Park’, University of Wyoming - National Park Service Research Center, 14th Annual Report, Boyce, M. S. and Plumb, G. E., Ed., University of Wyoming, pp. 131–133.
- Christensen, N. L., Agee, J. K., Brussard, P. F., Hughes, J., Knight, D. H., Minshall, G. W., Peek, J. M., Pyne, S. J., Swanson, F. J., Thomas, J. W., Wells, S., Williams, S. E. and Wright, H. A.: 1989, ‘Interpreting the Yellowstone Fires of 1988’, BioScience 39, 678–685.
- Despain, D. G.: 1987, ‘The Two Climates of Yellowstone National Park’, Proceedings of the Montana Academy of Science 47, 11–19.
- Dickinson, R. E.: 1989, ‘Uncertainties of Estimates of Climatic Change: A Review’, Climatic Change 15, 5–13.
- Dirks, R. A. and Martner, B. E.: 1982, ‘The Climate of Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks’, U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service Occasional Paper No. 6, pp. 1–26.
- Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R. and Travis, L.: 1983, ‘Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II’, Monthly Weather Review 111, 609–662.
- Lewin, R.: 1988, ‘Ecologists' Opportunity in Yellowstone's Blaze’, Science 241, 1762–1763.
- Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1987, ‘Large-Scale Changes of Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 1211–1235.
- Michaels, P. J.: 1990, ‘The Greenhouse Effect and Global Change: Review and Reappraisal’, Int. J. Environmental Studies 36, 55–71.
- Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1988, ‘Local Effects of Greenhouse Gases’, Nature 332, 399–400.
- Mitchell, J. F. B., Manabe, S., Meleshko, V. and Tokioka, T.: 1990, ‘Equilibrium Climate Change - and Its Implications for the Future’, in Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.), Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, pp. 131–172.
- Overpeck, J. T., Rind, D. and Goldberg, R.: 1990, ‘Climate-Induced Changes in Forest Disturbance and Vegetation’, Nature 343, 51–53.
- Rind, D., Goldberg, R. and Ruedy, R.: 1989, ‘Change in Climate Variability in the 21st Century’, Climatic Change 14, 5–37.
- Rind, D., Goldberg, R., Hansen, J., Rosenzweig, C. and Ruedy, R.: 1990, ‘Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Drought’, J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres 95, 9983–10004.
- Romme, W. H.: 1982, ‘Fire and Landscape Diversity in Subalpine Forests of Yellowstone National Park’, Ecological Monographs 52, 199–221.
- Romme, W. H. and Despain, D. G.: 1989a, ‘The Long History of Fire in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem’, Western Wildlands 15 (2), 10–17.
- Romme, W. H. and Despain, D. G.: 1989b, ‘The Yellowstone Fires’, Sci. Am. 261 (5), 37–46.
- Romme, W. H. and Despain, D. G.: 1989c, ‘Historical Perspective on the Yellowstone Fires of 1988’, BioScience 39 (10), 695–699.
- Romme, W. H. and Turner, M. G.: 1991, ‘Implications of Global Climate Change for Biogeographic Patterns in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem’, Conservation Biology 5 (3), 373–386.
- Schindler, D. W., Beaty, K. G., Fee, E. J., Cruikshank, D. R., DeBruyn, E. R., Findlay, D. L., Linsey, G. A., Shearer, J. A., Stainton, M. P. and Turner, M. A.: 1990, ‘Effects of Climatic Warming on Lakes of the Central Boreal Forest’, Science 250, 967–970.
- Schlesinger, M. E. and Jiang, X.: 1988, ‘The Transport of CO2-Induced Warming into the Ocean: An Analysis of Simulations by the OSU Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model’, Climate Dynamics 3, 1–17.
- Schlesinger, M. E. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1987, ‘Climatic Model Simulations of the Equilibrium Climate Response to Increased Carbon Dioxide’, Rev. Geophys. 25, 760–798.
- Schneider, S. H.: 1990, ‘The Global Warming Debate Heats up: An Analysis and Perspective’, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 71, 1292–1304.
- Schullery, P.: 1989, ‘The Fires and Fire Policy’, BioScience 39 (10), 686–694.
- Swetnam, T. W. and Betancourt, J. L.: 1990, ‘Fire-Southern Oscillation Relations in the Southwestern United States’, Science 249, 1017–1020.
- Taylor, D. L.: 1969, ‘Biotic Succession of Lodgepole Pine Forest of Fire Origin in Yellowstone National Park’, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Wyoming, Laramie.
- Taylor, D. L.: 1974, ‘Forest Fires in Yellowstone National Park’, J. Forest Hist. 18, 69–77.
- Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S.: 1988, ‘Cloud Feedback Processes in a GCM’, J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 1397–1415.
- Climate change in Yellowstone National Park: Is the drought-related risk of wildfires increasing?
Volume 22, Issue 1 , pp 35-45
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Office of Climatology and Department of Geography, Arizona State University, 85287, Tempe, AZ, U.S.A.
- 2. Department of Geology, University of New Mexico, 87131, Albuquerque, NM, U.S.A.
- 3. Department of Earth Sciences, University of California-Riverside, 92521, Riverside, CA, U.S.A.