Abstract
This paper discusses the importance of testing models which may be used to forecast the impact of climate on society. Model testing using sensitivity analysis and validation techniques is illustrated with two models: (1) the YIELD model which simulates the impact of climate on crop yields of several major crops, and (2) the International Futures Simulation model which can be used to simulate the impact of crop yield changes on the world food system. The problems of linking such models to each other are also discussed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Baier, W.: 1977, Crop-Weather Models and their Use in Yield Assessments, World Meteorological Organisation, Technical Note No. 151, Geneva, World Meteorological Organisation.
Baier, W.: 1983, ‘Agroclimatic Modeling: An overview’, In Agroclimate Information for Development: Reviving the Green Revolution, D. Cusack, Ed., Boulder, CO, Westview, 52–82.
Barney, G. O., Ed.: 1979, The Global 2000 Report, Washington, DC, U. S. Council on Environmental Quality.
Burt, J. E., J. T. Hayes, P. A. O'Rourke, W. H. Terjung, and P. E. Todhunter: 1980, WATER: A Model of Water Requirements for Irrigated and Rainfed Agriculture, Publications in Climatology, 33, (3), Elmer, NJ, C. W. Thornthwaite Associates.
Calloway et al.: August 1982, An Analysis of Method and Models for Assessing the Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts of CO 2 Induced Environmental Changes in the Agriculture Sector of the US Economy, Richland, WA, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Battelle Memorial Institute.
Biswas, A. K.: 1980, ‘Crop-Climate Models: A Review of the State of the Art’, In Climatic Constraints and Human Activities, J. Ausubel and A. K. Biswas, Eds., Oxford, UK, Pergamon, 75–92.
Clark, J., and S. Cole, with R. Curnow and M. Hopkins: 1975, Global Simulation Models: A Comparative Study, London, UK, Wiley.
Climate Impact Assessment Program: 1975, Impacts of Climatic Change on the Biosphere, Monograph 5, Washington, DC, U.S. Department of Transportation.
Enzer, S., R. Drobnik, and S. Alter: 1978, Neither Feast nor Famine, Lexington, MA, Lexington Books.
Hayes, J. T., P. A. O'Rourke, W. H. Terjung, and P. E. Todhunter: 1982, YIELD: A Numerical Crop Yield Model of Irrigated and Rainfed Agriculture, Publications in Climatology, 35, Elmer, NJ, C. W. Thornthwaite Associates.
Hughes, B. B.: 1982, International Future Simulation: Technical Document, Iowa City, IO, Conduit.
Hughes, B. B.: 1982, International Future Simulation: User Manual, Iowa City, IO, Conduit.
Hughes, B. B.: 1981, Global Modeling, Lexington, MA, Lexington Books.
Kates, R. W.: 1980, Improving the Science of Impact Study, Project Summary for the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, Paris, France, ICSU.
Katz, R.: 1979, ‘Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Crop Weather Models’, Agricultural Meteorology., 29, 291–300.
Liverman, D. M.: 1983, The Use of a Global Simulation Model in Assessing the Impact of Climate on Food Systems, Ph. D. Dissertation, Department of Geography, UCLA.
Liverman, D. M., W. H. Terjung, J. T. Hayes and L. O. Mearns: 1986, ‘Climatic change and grain corn yields in the North American Great Plains’, Climatic Change, 9, 327–347.
Meadows, D. H., W. Richardson, and G. Bruckman: 1983, Groping in the Dark: A History of the first decade of Global Modeling, New York, NY, Wiley.
Mearns, L. O.: 1982, Simulation of the effect of climate variability on wheat yields in Australia, M. A. Thesis, Department of Geography, UCLA.
Mesarovic, M., and E. Pestel: 1974, Mankind at the Turning Point, New York, NY, E.P. Dutton.
National Academy of Sciences: 1982, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Second Assessment, Washington, DC, National Academy of Sciences.
National Defense University: 1978, Climate Change to the Year 2000, Washington, DC, Government Printing Office.
National Defense University: 1980, Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Volume 1, Washington, DC, Government Printing Office.
Office of Technology Assessment, April: 1982, Global Models World Futures, and Public Policy: A critique, Washington, DC, Office of Technology Assessment.
Roberts, P.: 1977, SARUM Handbook, London, UK, Department of Environment and Transport.
Robinson, J.: 1981, Global Modeling and Climate Impact Assessment, IIASA Working Paper, Laxenburg, Austria, IIASA.
SARUM staff: 1977, (Systems Analysis Research Unit). SARUM 76 Global Modelling Project, London, UK, Her Majesty Stationery Office.
Terjung, W. H., J. T. Hayes, H-Y. Ji, P. A. O'Rourke, and P. E. Todhunter: 1984a, ‘Crop Water Requirements for Rainfed and Irrigated Rice (Paddy) in China’, Archives for Meteorology, Geophysics and Bioclimatology, Series B, 34, 181–202.
Terjung, W. H., D. M. Liverman, J. T. Hayes et al.: 1984b, ‘Climatic Change and Water Requirements for Grain Corn in the North American Great Plains’, Climatic Change, 6, 193–220.
Warrick, R. A. and M. Bowden: 1981, ‘Changing Impacts of Drought in the Great Plains’, In The Great plains: Perspectives and Prospects, M. Lawson and M. Baker, Eds., Lincoln, NE, Center for Great Plains Studies.
Warrick, R. A.: 1983, Implications of a return of 1930s droughts, Unpublished manuscript.
Warrick, R. A., and W. E. Riebsame: 1981, ‘Societal Response to CO2 Induced Climate Change: Opportunities for Research’, Climatic Change, 3, 387–428.
World Resources Institute: 1984, Conference on Greenhouse Policy Issues, Minneapolis, MI, Hubert Humphrey Institute (Unpublished papers).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liverman, D.M. Forecasting the impact of climate on food systems: Model testing and model linkage. Climatic Change 11, 267–285 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138804
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138804