Insights Into the Latent Multinomial Model Through Mark-Resight Data on Female Grizzly Bears With Cubs-of-the-Year
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Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.
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- Insights Into the Latent Multinomial Model Through Mark-Resight Data on Female Grizzly Bears With Cubs-of-the-Year
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Volume 18, Issue 4 , pp 556-577
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Springer US
- Additional Links
- Discrete uniform
- Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE)
- Population size
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University, P.O. Box 172400, Bozeman, MT, 59717-2400, USA
- 2. Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 12100 American Holly Drive, Laurel, MD, 21163, USA
- 3. Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, 239 Wagar, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
- 4. Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, U.S. Geological Survey, 2327 University Way, Ste 2, Bozeman, MT, 59715, USA
- 5. Large Carnivore Section, Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Lander, WY, 82520, USA