Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessing the impact of drought and forestry on streamflows in south-eastern Australia using a physically based hydrological model

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Environmental Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

An increase in plantation forestry has been linked to a reduction in streamflows in some catchments. Quantifying the relative contribution of this land-use change on streamflows can be complex when those changes occur during weather extremes such as drought. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to two sub-catchments in south-eastern Australia which have seen the introduction and establishment of plantation land use in the past 15 years, coinciding with severe drought (1997–2009). The models were both manually and auto-calibrated and produced very good fits to observed streamflow data during both calibration (1980–1991) and validation (1992–2009) periods. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the models were most sensitive to soil and groundwater parameterisation. Analysis of drought conditions on streamflows showed significant declines from long-term average streamflows, while assessment of baseflow contributions by the models indicated a mix of over- and underestimation depending on catchment and season. The modelled introduction of plantation forestry did not significantly change streamflows for a scenario which did not include the land-use change, suggesting that the modelled land-use change in the catchments was not sufficiently extensive to have an impact on streamflows despite simulating actual rates of change. The SWAT models developed by this study will be invaluable as a basis for future use in regional climate-change studies and for the assessment of land management and land-use change impact on streamflows.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abbaspour KC (2011) SWAT-CUP 4: SWAT calibration and uncertainty programs: a user manual. Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag, Duebendorf

    Google Scholar 

  • Abbaspour KC, Yang J, Maximov I, Siber R, Bogner K, Mieleitner J, Zobrist J, Srinivasan R (2007) Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. J Hydrol 333:413–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnold JG, Allen PM (1999) Automated methods for estimating baseflow and ground water recharge from streamflow records. J Am Water Resour Assoc 35:411–424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34:73–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arthington AH, Pusey BJ (2003) Flow restoration and protection in Australian rivers. River Res Appl 19:377–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Australian Greenhouse Office (2000) Land clearing: a social history, technical report 4. National Carbon Accounting System. Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Benyon RG, Doody TM, Theiveyanathan S, Vijay K (2008) Plantation forest water use in southwest Victoria, technical report no. 164. CSIRO, Mount Gambier

  • Brath A, Montanari A, Moretti G (2006) Assessing the effect on flood frequency of land use change via hydrological simulation (with uncertainty). J Hydrol 324:141–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breuer L, Eckhardt K, Frede HG (2003) Plant parameter values for models in temperate climates. Ecol Model 169:237–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown SC, Versace VL, Laurenson L, Ierodiaconou D, Fawcett J, Salzman S (2012) Assessment of spatiotemporal varying relationships between rainfall, land cover and surface water area using geographically weighted regression. Environ Model Assess 17:241–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown SC, Lester RE, Versace VL, Fawcett J, Laurenson L (2014) Hydrologic landscape regionalisation using deductive classification and random forests. PLoS ONE 9:e112856

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bureau of Meteorology (2012) Bureau of Meteorology gridded climate data. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/climatology/gridded-data-info/gridded-climate-data.shtml. Accessed Mar 2012

  • Chase TN, Pielke RA, Kittel TGF, Nemani RR, Running SW (2000) Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter. Clim Dyn 16:93–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costa MH, Botta A, Cardille JA (2003) Effects of large-scale changes in land cover on the discharge of the Tocantins River, Southeastern Amazonia. J Hydrol 283:206–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CSIRO (2012) Climate and water availability in south-eastern Australia: a synthesis of findings from phase 2 of the South eastern Australian climate initiative (SEACI). CSIRO, Adelaide

    Google Scholar 

  • Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008) Climate change in the Glenelg Hopkins region. Department of Sustainability and Environment, Melbourne

  • Fan J, Tian F, Yang Y, Han S, Qiu G (2010) Quantifying the magnitude of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff decline in Mian River Basin, China. Water Sci Technol 62:783–791

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2007) Digital soil map of the world, version 3.6. FAO, Rome

  • Fohrer N, Haverkamp S, Eckhardt K, Frede HG (2001) Hydrologic response to land use changes on the catchment scale. Phys Chem Earth B 26:577–582

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gassman PW, Reyes MR, Green CH, Arnold JG (2007) The soil and water assessment tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions. Trans ASABE 50:1211–1250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geoscience Australia (2011) 3 second SRTM derived hydrological digital elevation model (DEM-S) version 1.0, ANZLIC unique identifier: ANZCW0703014217. Geoscience Australia, Canberra

  • Geza M, McCray JE (2008) Effects of soil data resolution on SWAT model stream flow and water quality predictions. J Environ Manag 88:393–406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girvetz EH, Maurer EP, Duffy P, Ruesch A, Thrasher B, Zganjar C (2013) Making climate data relevant to decision making: the important details of spatial and temporal downscaling. The World Bank

  • Graetz R, Wilson M, Campbell S (1995) Landcover disturbance over the Australian continent: a contemporary assessment. Biodiversity Series Paper, vol 7. Department of the Environment, Sport and Territories, Canberra

  • Ierodiaconou D, Laurenson L, Leblanc M, Stagnitti F, Duff G, Salzmann S, Versace VL (2005) The consequences of land use change on nutrient exports: a regional scale assessment in south-west Victoria, Australia. J Environ Manag 74:305–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ladson A (2011) Hydrology: an Australian introduction. Oxford University Press, South Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • Lahmer W, Pfützner B, Becker A (2001) Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the mesoscale. Phys Chem Earth B 26:565–575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lambin EF, Turner BL, Geist HJ, Agbola SB, Angelsen A, Bruce JW, Coomes OT, Dirzo R, Fischer G, Folke C, George PS, Homewood K, Imbernon J, Leemans R, Li X, Moran EF, Mortimore M, Ramakrishnan PS, Richards JF, Skånes H, Steffen W, Stone GD, Svedin U, Veldkamp TA, Vogel C, Xu J (2001) The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths. Glob Environ Change 11:261–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Z, Liu WZ, Zhang XC, Zheng FL (2009) Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. J Hydrol 377:35–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McMahon TA, Finlayson BL (2003) Droughts and anti-droughts: the low flow hydrology of Australian rivers. Freshwat Biol 48:1147–1160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moriasi D, Starks P (2010) Effects of the resolution of soil dataset and precipitation dataset on SWAT2005 streamflow calibration parameters and simulation accuracy. J Soil Water Conserv 65:63–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50:885–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2011) Soil and Water Assessment Tool: theoretical documentation 2009 vol TR-406. Technical report no. 406 edn. Texas Water Resources Institute—Texas A&M University, College Station

  • OECD (1996) Guidelines for aid agencies for improved conservation and sustainable use of tropical and sub-tropical wetlands. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Peel MC, McMahon TA, Finlayson BL (2010) Vegetation impact on mean annual evapotranspiration at a global catchment scale. Water Resour Res 46:1–16

    Google Scholar 

  • R Core Team (2014) R: a language and environment for statistical computing, version 3.1.2. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. http://www.R-project.org/. Accessed Aug 2014

  • Ramankutty N, Graumlich L, Achard F, Alves D, Chhabra A, DeFries RS, Foley JA, Geist H, Houghton RA, Goldewijk KK, Lambin EF, Millington A, Rasmussen K, Reid RS, Turner BLT II (2006) Global land-cover change: recent progress, remaining challenges. In: Lambin EF, Geist HJ (eds) Land-use and land-cover change: local processes and global impacts. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodriguez Suarez JA, Diaz-Fierros F, Perez R, Soto B (2014) Assessing the influence of afforestation with Eucalyptus globulus on hydrological response from a small catchment in northwestern Spain using the HBV hydrological model. Hydrol Process 28:5561–5572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romanowicz AA, Vanclooster M, Rounsevell M, La Junesse I (2005) Sensitivity of the SWAT model to the soil and land use data parametrisation: a case study in the Thyle catchment, Belgium. Ecol Model 187:27–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha PP, Zeleke K, Hafeez M (2014) Streamflow modeling in a fluctuant climate using SWAT: Yass River catchment in south eastern Australia. Environ Earth Sci 71:5241–5254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott DF, Lesch W (1997) Streamflow responses to afforestation with Eucalyptus grandis and Pinus patula and to felling in the Mokobulaan experimental catchments, South Africa. J Hydrol 199:360–377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinclair-Knight-Merz (2008) Water and land use change study: stage 3. Water and land use change in the catchment of the Crawford River. Report to Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority and Water and Land Use Change Steering Committee. Sinclair-Knight-Merz, Project VW03647

  • Smedema LK, Rycroft DW (1983) Land drainage: planning and design of agricultural drainage systems. Cornell University Press, Ithaca

    Google Scholar 

  • Teng J, Chiew FHS, Vaze J, Marvanek S, Kirono DGC (2012) Estimation of climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia using Budyko and Fu equations and hydrological models. J Hydrometeorol 13:1094–1106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tollan A (2002) Land-use change and floods: what do we need most, research or management? Water Sci Technol 45:183–190

    Google Scholar 

  • Versace VL, Ierodiaconou D, Stagnitti F, Hamilton AJ (2008a) Appraisal of random and systematic land cover transitions for regional water balance and revegetation strategies. Agric Ecosyst Environ 123:328–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Versace VL, Ierodiaconou D, Stagnitti F, Hamilton AJ, Walter MT, Mitchell B, Boland AM (2008b) Regional-scale models for relating land cover to basin surface-water quality using remotely sensed data in a GIS. Environ Monit Assess 142:171–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watson BM (2006) A hydrologic model for the Woady Yaloak River catchment. PhD thesis, Deakin University

  • Xu CY, Singh VP (2004) Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate. Water Resour Manag 18:591–612

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yihdego Y, Webb JA (2011) Modeling of bore hydrographs to determine the impact of climate and land-use change in a temperate subhumid region of southeastern Australia. Hydrogeol J 19:877–887

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yihdego Y, Webb J (2013) An empirical water budget model as a tool to identify the impact of land-use change in stream flow in southeastern Australia. Water Resour Manag 27:4941–4958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zambrano-Bigiarini M (2014a) hydroGOF: goodness-of-fit functions for comparison of simulated and observed hydrological time series. R package version 0.3-8. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=hydroGOF. Accessed Aug 2014

  • Zambrano-Bigiarini M (2014b) hydroTSM: time series management, analysis and interpolation for hydrological modelling. R package version 0.4-2-1. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=hydroTSM. Accessed Aug 2014

  • Zedler JB, Kercher S (2005) Wetland resources: status, trends, ecosystem services, and restorability. Annu Rev Environ Resour 30:39–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the Cornell University Soil and Water Laboratory for hosting the lead author in 2012 and, in particular, Dr. Daniel Fuka for extensive advice on model calibration. The authors also wish to thank the Glenelg-Hopkins Catchment Management Authority for providing funding to support this project, Dr. Daniel Ierodiaconou for supplying land-cover maps used herein and the two anonymous reviewers for their contributions to the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, PO Box 423, Warrnambool, VIC, 3280, Australia

    Stuart C. Brown & Rebecca E. Lester

  2. Centre for Environmental Management, Faculty of Science and Technology, Federation University, Ballarat, VIC, Australia

    Vincent L. Versace

  3. Greater Green Triangle University Department of Rural Health, Flinders University and Deakin University, Warrnambool, VIC, Australia

    Vincent L. Versace

  4. Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

    M. Todd Walter

Authors
  1. Stuart C. Brown
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Vincent L. Versace
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rebecca E. Lester
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. M. Todd Walter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stuart C. Brown.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Brown, S.C., Versace, V.L., Lester, R.E. et al. Assessing the impact of drought and forestry on streamflows in south-eastern Australia using a physically based hydrological model. Environ Earth Sci 74, 6047–6063 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4628-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4628-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation