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Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China

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Abstract

The method of surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of China in 2010, the land cover scenarios of southwestern China were respectively simulated. The average total accuracy and Kappa index of SMLCS are 90.25 and 87.96 %, respectively. The results show that there would be a very apparent similar variety on the spatial distribution pattern of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China under all the three scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2100, but there would have the different change rate. In general, the change rate of land cover type under RCP85 scenario would be the fastest, then under RCP45 scenario, and under RCP26 would be the slowest. From 2010 to 2100, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, nival area, and desert and bare rock would have a gradual decrease trend, while evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction built-up land, and water bodies body would gradually increase in karst areas of southwestern China, in which wetland would have the fastest increase rate (5.28 % per decade on average), and desert and bare rock would decrease with the fastest rate (2.34 % per decade on average).

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41271406 and 91325204), National High-tech R&D Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (No. 2013AA122003), and the Key Program of National Natural Science of China (No. 41023010). We would like to acknowledge the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Zemeng Fan, Jing Li, Tianxiang Yue & Xun Zhou

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Jing Li & Xun Zhou

  3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Zemeng Fan

  4. School of Geography and Environment Sciences, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, 550001, China

    Anjun Lan

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  1. Zemeng Fan
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Correspondence to Zemeng Fan.

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Fan, Z., Li, J., Yue, T. et al. Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China. Environ Earth Sci 74, 6407–6420 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4223-z

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