Abstract
Based on the micro files of the Canadian Census we document an increasing earnings penalty for cohorts of immigrants arriving after the late-1970s, especially for the most recent cohort. We also find much quicker assimilation rates for these cohorts, especially for the most recent cohort. Since the late-1970s, the increasing earnings penalty dominated their more rapid assimilation, so that immigrants exhibited ever-deteriorating patterns of integration into the Canadian labour market. For the most recent cohort (2002–2006), this reversed itself, suggesting that the tide may have turned. We find this for both men and women. Our findings are robust across alternative regression specifications, as well as a sample that only considers full-time and full-year workers.
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Notes
Although overall poverty rates have been declining over time in Canada, the proportion of recent immigrants (in Canada for 5 years or less) who fell below the Statistics Canada Low-Income cut-off increased from 24.6 % in 1980 to 34.2 % in 1985, subsequently declining to 31.3 % in 1990 before rising to an astonishing 47 % in 1995, then falling to 35.8 % in 2000 and 36 % by 2005 (Picot et al. 2010, p. 14).
Studies that document the declining economic position of immigrants into Canada include Bloom and Gunderson (1991), Baker and Benjamin (1994), Bloom et al. (1995), Grant (1999), Frenette and Morissette (2005), Hum and Simpson (2004a, b), Aydemir and Skuterud (2005), Picot and Sweetman (2005), Hiebert (2006), Reitz ( 2006, 2007a, b); Zietsma (2007), Ferrer and Craig Riddell (2008), Nadeau and Seckin (2010) and Beach et al. (2011).
For example: Bloom and Gunderson (1991) are restricted to the 1971 and 1981 Census: Baker and Benjamin (1994) and Bloom et al. (1995) to the 1971, 1981 and 1986 Census: Aydemir and Skuterud (2005) to the 1981, 1986, 1996 and 2001 Census; and Picot and Piraino (2012) to the 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census. Bonikowska et al. (2011) do use the 2006 Census but their analysis starts with the 1981 Census, and it focuses on university educated immigrants and comparisons with the U.S. McDonald and Worswick (2010) also use the 2006 Census but their analysis starts with the 1991 Census and focuses on different racial groups.
As in Bonikowska et al. (2011) we excluded immigrants who arrived under the age of 25 in order not to contaminate the results by differences in the composition of the age at migration across various cohorts, and because the labour market experience of youths may differ markedly from those who arrived as adults.
Years of education were based on the mid-points of the education categories in the Census.
Countries of origin are aggregated to regions, to be comparable across the different Census years and include: Europe; Asia; Africa; Central and South America and the Caribbean; Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands; the United States; and Canada as the omitted reference group.
Full-time workers are those who worked 30+ hours per week and full-year workers are those who worked 49-52 weeks per year.
We also observe a similar pattern in our results for women. The cohorts of immigrants arriving before the mid-1980s do not have entry earnings penalties, but they do not assimilate very well. In contrast, the entry cohorts after the mid-1980s have entry earnings penalties, but they assimilate (at varied rates).
We also estimated the equations excluding the Atlantic provinces since the coding of immigrants in the Atlantic
provinces changed over time. Our results are not affected by this exclusion.
The policy implications are generally similar to those in Beach et al. (2011). Their analysis is based largely on simulations of the impact of alternative policy initiatives on immigrant entry earnings in the calendar year after their arrival. Their simulations are based on estimates from the existing literature including their own earlier work such as Beach et al. (2008).
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Campolieti, M., Gunderson, M., Timofeeva, O. et al. Immigrant Assimilation, Canada 1971–2006: Has the Tide Turned?. J Labor Res 34, 455–475 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12122-013-9167-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12122-013-9167-z