Theoretical Ecology

, Volume 5, Issue 2, pp 211–217

Local transmission processes and disease-driven host extinctions


    • Department of Animal and Plant SciencesUniversity of Sheffield
  • Steve Webb
    • Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of Strathclyde
  • Janis Antonovics
    • Department of BiologyUniversity of Virginia
  • Mike Boots
    • Department of Animal and Plant SciencesUniversity of Sheffield
Original paper

DOI: 10.1007/s12080-011-0111-7

Cite this article as:
Best, A., Webb, S., Antonovics, J. et al. Theor Ecol (2012) 5: 211. doi:10.1007/s12080-011-0111-7


Classic infectious disease theory assumes that transmission depends on either the global density of the parasite (for directly transmitted diseases) or its global frequency (for sexually transmitted diseases). One important implication of this dichotomy is that parasite-driven host extinction is only predicted under frequency-dependent transmission. However, transmission is fundamentally a local process between individuals that is determined by their and/or their vector’s behaviour. We examine the implications of local transmission processes to the likelihood of disease-driven host extinction. Local density-dependent transmission can lead to parasite-driven extinction, but extinction is more likely under local frequency-dependent transmission and much more likely when there is active local searching behaviour. Density-dependent directly transmitted diseases spread locally can therefore lead to deterministic host extinction, but locally frequency-dependent passive vector-borne diseases are more likely to cause extinctions. However, it is active searching behaviour either by a vector or between sexual partners that is most likely to cause the host to go extinct. Our work emphasises that local processes are essential in determining parasite-driven extinctions, and the role of parasites in the extinction of rare species may have been underplayed due to the classic assumption of global density-dependent transmission.


TransmissionSpatial structureHost–parasiteExtinction

Supplementary material

12080_2011_111_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (102 kb)
ESM 1(PDF 101 kb)

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011