Theoretical Ecology

, Volume 1, Issue 4, pp 209–220

Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Original paper

DOI: 10.1007/s12080-008-0021-5

Cite this article as:
Caplat, P., Anand, M. & Bauch, C. Theor Ecol (2008) 1: 209. doi:10.1007/s12080-008-0021-5


Potentially significant shifts in the geographical patterns of vegetation are an expected result of climate change. However, the importance of local processes (e.g., dispersal, competition, or disturbance) has been often ignored in climate change modeling. We develop an individual-based simulation approach to assess how these mechanisms affect migration rate. We simulate the northward progression of a theoretical tree species when climate change makes northern habitat suitable. We test how the rate of progression is affected by (1) competition with a resident species, (2) interactions with disturbance regimes, (3) species dispersal kernel, and (4) the intensity of climate change over time. Results reveal a strong response of species’ expansion rate to the presence of a local competitor, as well as nonlinear effects of disturbance. We discuss these results in light of current knowledge of northern forest dynamics and results found in the climatic research literature.


Forest dynamicsSimulation modelDisturbance regimeSpecies rangeBoreal forestTree colonization

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Environmental BiologyUniversity of GuelphGuelphCanada
  2. 2.Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of GuelphGuelphCanada