Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention

, Volume 12, Issue 5, pp 532–540

Forecasting Method for Product Reliability Along with Performance Data

Technical Article---Peer-Reviewed

DOI: 10.1007/s11668-012-9592-y

Cite this article as:
Xia, X. J Fail. Anal. and Preven. (2012) 12: 532. doi:10.1007/s11668-012-9592-y


The existing reliability theory is based on current knowledge of probability distributions and trends of product performances. This article proposes a forecasting method of the product reliability along with the performance data, without any prior information on probability distributions and trends. Fusing an evaluating indicator with five chaotic forecasting methods, five runtime data of the future performance are predicted by current performance data. Via the bootstrap, many generated runtime data along with the performance data are gained, and the predicted reliability function of the product runtime can therefore be established. The experimental investigation on the rolling bearing friction torque shows that the calculated values are in very good accordance with the measured values.


ReliabilityProduct performanceRuntimeTime seriesChaotic forecastingInformation-poor system

Copyright information

© ASM International 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Mechatronical Engineering CollegeHenan University of Science and TechnologyLuoyangChina