, Volume 13, Issue 12, pp 2152-2162
Date: 06 Oct 2009

Preoperative Nomogram to Predict Risk of Perioperative Mortality Following Pancreatic Resections for Malignancy

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Abstract

Introduction

The majority of pancreatic resections for malignancy are performed in older patients with major comorbidities. The aim of this study was to develop a preoperative nomogram based on the presence of comorbidities to predict risk of perioperative mortality.

Materials and Methods

The National Inpatient Sample database was queried to identify patients that underwent pancreatectomy for malignancy. The preoperative comorbidities identified as predictors were used, and a nomogram was created. Sample A (2000–2004) was utilized to develop the model, and sample B (2005) was utilized to validate this model.

Results

The overall actual observed perioperative mortality rate for samples A and B was 6.3% and 5.2%, respectively. The mean total points calculated for sample A by the nomogram was 131.7 that translates to a nomogram-predicted mortality rate of 4.9%, which is similar to the actual mortality. The mean total points for sample B was 128.1, which translates to a nomogram-predicted mortality rate of 4.6%. The similarity of mortality rates as predicted by the nomogram and a concordance index of 0.76 shows good agreement between the data and the nomogram.

Conclusion

This preoperative nomogram has been shown to accurately predict the risk of perioperative mortality following pancreatectomy for malignancy.

SSAT, 2009, Chicago, IL, Plenary session—June 2nd 2009