Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

, Volume 75, Issue 3, pp 523–542

Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt

  • Daozhou Gao
  • Chris Cosner
  • Robert Stephen Cantrell
  • John C. Beier
  • Shigui Ruan
Original Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11538-013-9818-5

Cite this article as:
Gao, D., Cosner, C., Cantrell, R.S. et al. Bull Math Biol (2013) 75: 523. doi:10.1007/s11538-013-9818-5

Abstract

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that harms both human health and livestock production. It is believed that RVF in Egypt has been repeatedly introduced by the importation of infected animals from Sudan. In this paper, we propose a three-patch model for the process by which animals enter Egypt from Sudan, are moved up the Nile, and then consumed at population centers. The basic reproduction number for each patch is introduced and then the threshold dynamics of the model are established. We simulate an interesting scenario showing a possible explanation of the observed phenomenon of the geographic spread of RVF in Egypt.

Keywords

Rift Valley fever Patch model Egypt Basic reproduction number Threshold dynamics 

Copyright information

© Society for Mathematical Biology 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Daozhou Gao
    • 1
  • Chris Cosner
    • 2
  • Robert Stephen Cantrell
    • 2
  • John C. Beier
    • 3
  • Shigui Ruan
    • 2
  1. 1.Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in OphthalmologyUniversity of CaliforniaSan FranciscoUSA
  2. 2.Department of MathematicsUniversity of MiamiCoral GablesUSA
  3. 3.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Miller School of MedicineUniversity of MiamiMiamiUSA

Personalised recommendations