, Volume 72, Issue 8, pp 2004-2018

Modeling Optimal Intervention Strategies for Cholera

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Abstract

While cholera has been a recognized disease for two centuries, there is no strategy for its effective control. We formulate a mathematical model to include essential components such as a hyperinfectious, short-lived bacterial state, a separate class for mild human infections, and waning disease immunity. A new result quantifies contributions to the basic reproductive number from multiple infectious classes. Using optimal control theory, parameter sensitivity analysis, and numerical simulations, a cost-effective balance of multiple intervention methods is compared for two endemic populations. Results provide a framework for designing cost-effective strategies for diseases with multiple intervention methods.

All authors worked on the model and optimal control formulation as well as the interpretation of the results. Miller Neilan contributed the optimal control characterization and numerical results. Schaefer contributed the parameter sensitivity analysis.