Modeling Optimal Intervention Strategies for Cholera
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- Miller Neilan, R.L., Schaefer, E., Gaff, H. et al. Bull. Math. Biol. (2010) 72: 2004. doi:10.1007/s11538-010-9521-8
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While cholera has been a recognized disease for two centuries, there is no strategy for its effective control. We formulate a mathematical model to include essential components such as a hyperinfectious, short-lived bacterial state, a separate class for mild human infections, and waning disease immunity. A new result quantifies contributions to the basic reproductive number from multiple infectious classes. Using optimal control theory, parameter sensitivity analysis, and numerical simulations, a cost-effective balance of multiple intervention methods is compared for two endemic populations. Results provide a framework for designing cost-effective strategies for diseases with multiple intervention methods.