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Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: Progress and perspectives

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Abstract

Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Qiuhong Tang, Xuejun Zhang, Zhe Li & Xingcai Liu

  2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Qingyun Duan

  3. Remote Sensing Technology Application Center, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Shifeng Huang

  4. RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xing Yuan

  5. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Huijuan Cui

  6. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Xuejun Zhang

Authors
  1. Qiuhong Tang
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  2. Xuejun Zhang
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  3. Qingyun Duan
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  4. Shifeng Huang
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  5. Xing Yuan
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  6. Huijuan Cui
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  7. Zhe Li
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  8. Xingcai Liu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Qiuhong Tang.

Additional information

Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41425002; National Basic Research Program of China, No.2012CB955403; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects), No.GYHY201506001-7; The Beijing Science and Technology Plan Project, No.Z141100003614052

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Tang, Q., Zhang, X., Duan, Q. et al. Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: Progress and perspectives. J. Geogr. Sci. 26, 904–920 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1306-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1306-z

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