Journal of Geographical Sciences

, Volume 21, Issue 1, pp 3–17

Scenario-based assessment of future food security

Authors

  • Wenbin Wu
    • Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital AgricultureMinistry of Agriculture
    • Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
    • Center for Spatial Information ScienceUniversity of Tokyo
    • Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital AgricultureMinistry of Agriculture
    • Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
  • Peng Yang
    • Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital AgricultureMinistry of Agriculture
    • Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
  • Liangzhi You
    • International Food Policy Research Institute
  • Qingbo Zhou
    • Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital AgricultureMinistry of Agriculture
    • Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
  • Zhongxin Chen
    • Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital AgricultureMinistry of Agriculture
    • Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
  • Ryosuke Shibasaki
    • Center for Spatial Information ScienceUniversity of Tokyo
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11442-011-0825-x

Cite this article as:
Wu, W., Tang, H., Yang, P. et al. J. Geogr. Sci. (2011) 21: 3. doi:10.1007/s11442-011-0825-x

Abstract

This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators, the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.

Keywords

scenario food security per capita food availability per capita GDP model assessment

Copyright information

© Science in China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011