Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi’s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO’s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China’s rice production is less climate-sensitive.
- Cane M A, Eshel G, Buckland R W, 1994. Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. Nature, 370: 204–205. CrossRef
- CNBS, 2005. China National Statistics Bureau Agriculture Production Database. Beijing: China Agricultural Press.
- Dawe D, Moya P, Casiwan C (eds.), 2006. Why does the Philippines import rice? Meeting the challenge of trade liberalization. Los Baños, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice).
- Dawe D, Moya P, Valencia S, 2008. Institutional, policy and farmer responses to drought: El Niño events and rice in the Philippines. Disasters, 33(2): 291–307. CrossRef
- Falcon W P, Naylor R L, Smith W, 2004. Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 40(3): 355–377. CrossRef
- Fan S, Ruttan V, 1992. Technical change in centrally planned economies, agricultural economics. The Journal of International Association of Agricultural Economists, 6: 301–314.
- FAO, 2006. FAOSTAT agriculture data. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
- Hansen J W, Hodges A W, Jones J W, 1998. ENSO influences on agriculture in the southeastern United States. Journal of Climate, 11: 404–411. CrossRef
- Huang J, Rozelle S, 1995. Environmental stress and grain yields in China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 77: 853–864. CrossRef
- Huang J, Lin Y, Martin W, 2009. Will changes in trade and domestic distortions affecting China’s agriculture? Food Policy, 34: 407–416. CrossRef
- Huffman G J, Adler R F, Arkin A et al., 1997. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(1): 5–20. CrossRef
- Kapuscinski C A, 2000. Agricultural productivity in India: The role of climate information in forecasting yields of foodgrains. In: Grove R H, Chappell J. El Niño-History and Crisis: Studies from the Asia-Pacific Region. Cambridge: The White Horse Press, 191–223.
- Kirtman B P, Shukla J, Balmaseda M et al., 2001. Current Status of ENSO Forecast Skill: A Report to the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction WCRP Informal Report No.23/01 and ICPO Publication No.56. World Climate Research Programme, 26.
- Lin J Y, 1992. Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China. American Economic Review, 82: 34–51.
- Naylor R L, Falcon W P, Rochberg D et al., 2001. Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation climate data to predict rice production in Indonesia. Climatic Change, 50: 255–265.
- Naylor R L, Falcon W P, Wada N et al., 2002. Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 38(1): 75–91. CrossRef
- NOAA, 2006. From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/html/wpage.cmap.html.
- Phillips J G, Cane M A, Rosenzweig C et al., 1998. ENSO, seasonal rainfall patterns and simulated maize yield variability in Zimbabwe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 90: 39–50. CrossRef
- Podesta G P, Messina C D, Grondona M O et al., 1999. Associations between grain crop yields in Central-Eastern Argentina and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 38: 1488–1498. CrossRef
- Martha G R, Dawe D, Falcon W P et al., 2009. El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts on rice production in Luzon, the Philippines. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 48: 1718–1724. CrossRef
- Tao F, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z et al., 2004. Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with the East Asian summer monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate Research, 28: 23–30. CrossRef
- Wu R G, Hu Z Z, Kirtman B P, 2003. Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in East Asia. Journal of Climate, 16: 3742–3758. CrossRef
- Yin Peihong, Fang Xiuqi, Yun Yaru, 2009. Regional differences of vulnerability of food security in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 19(5): 532–544. CrossRef
- Zhang T, Zhu J, Yang X et al., 2008. Correlation changes between rice yields in North and Northwest China and ENSO from 1960 to 2004. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148(6/7): 1021–1033. CrossRef
- Zhang Z Y, Gong D Y, Hu M et al., 2009. Anomalous winter temperature and precipitation events in southern China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 19: 471–488. CrossRef
- Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production
Journal of Geographical Sciences
Volume 20, Issue 1 , pp 3-16
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- SP Science in China Press
- Additional Links
- El Niño Southern Oscillation
- econometric methods
- rice production
- sea-surface temperature anomaly
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China
- 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China
- 3. Central Finance University, Beijing, 100081, China
- 4. Stanford University, Stanford, California, 94305, USA
- 5. University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA