, Volume 8, Issue 3, pp 323-334
Date: 27 Oct 2012

Probabilistic evaluation of primary consolidation settlement of Songdo New City by using kriged estimates of geologic profiles

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The uncertainty in the spatial distributions of consolidation settlement (s c) and time (t p) for Songdo New City is evaluated by using a probabilistic procedure. Ordinary kriging and three theoretical semivariogram models are used to estimate the spatial distributions of geo-layers which affect s c and t p in this study. The spatial map of mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ) for s c and t p are determined by using a first-order second moment method based on the evaluated statistics and probability density functions (PDFs) of soil properties. It is shown that the coefficients of variation (COVs) of the compression ratio [C c/(1 + e 0)] and the coefficient of consolidation (c v) are the most influential factors on the uncertainties of s c and t p, respectively. The μ and σ of the s c and t p, as well as the probability that s c exceeds 100 cm [P(s c > 100 cm)] and the probability that t p exceeds 36 months [P(t p > 36 months)] in Sect. 1, are observed to be larger than those of other sections because the thickness of the consolidating layer in Sect. 1 is the largest in the entire study area. The area requiring additional fill after the consolidation appears to increase as the COV of C c/(1 + e 0) increases and as the probabilistic design criterion (α) decreases. It is also shown that the area requiring the prefabricated vertical drains installation increases as the COV of c v increases and as the α decreases. The design procedure presented in this paper could be used in the decision making process for the design of geotechnical structures at coastal reclamation area.