, Volume 58, Issue 25, pp 30443052
First online:
Review of the uncertainty analysis of groundwater numerical simulation
 JiChun WuAffiliated withKey Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University Email author
 , XianKui ZengAffiliated withKey Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University
Abstract
Groundwater system is a complex and open system, which is affected by natural conditions and human activities. Natural hydrological processes is conceptualized through relatively simple flow governing equations in groundwater models. Moreover, observation data is always limited in field hydrogeological conditions. Therefore, the predictive results of groundwater simulation often deviate from true values, which is attribute to the uncertainty of groundwater numerical simulation. According to the process of system simulation, the uncertainty sources of groundwater numerical simulation can be divided into model parameters, conceptual model and observation data uncertainties. In addition, the uncertainty stemmed from boundary conditions is sometimes refered as scenario uncertainty. In this paper, the origination and category of groundwater modeling uncertainty are analyzed. The recent progresses on the methods of groundwater modeling uncertainty analysis are reivewed. Furthermore, the researches on the comprehensive analysis of uncertainty sources, and the predictive uncertainty of model outputs are discussed. Finally, several prospects on the deveolpment of groundwater modeling uncetainty analysis are proposed.
Keywords
groundwater modeling uncertainty analysis model parameter conceptual model observation data Title
 Review of the uncertainty analysis of groundwater numerical simulation
 Open Access
 Available under Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.
 Journal

Chinese Science Bulletin
Volume 58, Issue 25 , pp 30443052
 Cover Date
 201309
 DOI
 10.1007/s1143401359508
 Print ISSN
 10016538
 Online ISSN
 18619541
 Publisher
 Springer Berlin Heidelberg
 Additional Links
 Topics
 Keywords

 groundwater modeling
 uncertainty analysis
 model parameter
 conceptual model
 observation data
 Industry Sectors
 Authors

 JiChun Wu ^{(1)}
 XianKui Zeng ^{(1)}
 Author Affiliations

 1. Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China