, Volume 50, Issue 8, pp 1251-1257

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

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Abstract

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965–2004, with correlation coefficients of −0.42 and −0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical atmospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40620130113 and 40221503)