Original Research

Tropical Animal Health and Production

, Volume 42, Issue 7, pp 1441-1449

Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.

Factors associated with spatial clustering of foot-and-mouth disease in Nepal

  • Bimal K. ChhetriAffiliated withCenter for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California
  • , Andres M. PerezAffiliated withCenter for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of CaliforniaCONICET/Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias UNR Email author 
  • , Mark C. ThurmondAffiliated withCenter for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to quantify associations between hypothesized epidemiological factors and the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Nepal. Spatial clustering of reports of at least one FMD case by Village Development Committee (VDC) in 2004 was examined by use of the spatial scan statistic. A Bayesian Poisson multivariate regression model was used to quantify the association between the number of reports and 25 factors hypothesized to be associated with FMD risk. The spatial scan statistic identified (P < 0.01) two clusters of FMD reports. Large numbers of people, buffalo, and animal technicians in a district were associated with an elevated risk of a VDC reporting ≥1 FMD case. The knowledge of high-risk areas and factors associated with the risk of FMD in Nepal could be applied in future disease control programs.

Keywords

Foot-and-mouth disease Nepal Spatial analysis Bayesian regression model