Triviality Pursuit
 Alan Hájek
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The thesis that probabilities of conditionals are conditional probabilities has putatively been refuted many times by socalled ‘triviality results’, although it has also enjoyed a number of resurrections. In this paper I assault it yet again with a new such result. I begin by motivating the thesis and discussing some of the philosophical ramifications of its fluctuating fortunes. I will canvas various reasons, old and new, why the thesis seems plausible, and why we should care about its fate. I will look at some objections to Lewis’s famous triviality results, and thus some reasons for the pursuit of further triviality results. I will generalize Lewis’s results in ways that meet the objections. I will conclude with some reflections on the demise of the thesis—or otherwise.
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 Title
 Triviality Pursuit
 Journal

Topoi
Volume 30, Issue 1 , pp 315
 Cover Date
 20110401
 DOI
 10.1007/s1124501090832
 Print ISSN
 01677411
 Online ISSN
 15728749
 Publisher
 Springer Netherlands
 Additional Links
 Topics
 Keywords

 Probabilities of conditionals
 Conditional probabilities
 Stalnaker’s thesis
 Triviality results
 Conditionalization
 Imaging
 Blurred imaging
 Maximum entropy
 Minimum cross entropy
 Boldness
 Moderation
 Revision rules
 Authors

 Alan Hájek ^{(1)}
 Author Affiliations

 1. Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia