Skip to main content
Log in

On the Robustness of the Winner’s Curse Phenomenon

  • Published:
Theory and Decision Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We set out to find ways to help decision makers overcome the “winner’s curse,” a phenomenon commonly observed in asymmetric information bargaining situations, and instead found strong support for its robustness. In a series of manipulations of the “Acquiring a Company Task,” we tried to enhance decision makers’ cognitive understanding of the task. We did so by presenting them with different parameters of the task, having them compare and contrast these different parameters, giving them full feedback on their history of choices and resulting outcomes, and allowing them to interact with a human opponent instead of a computer program. Much to our surprise, none of these manipulations led to a better understanding of the task. Our results demonstrate and emphasize the robustness of the winner’s curse phenomenon.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Akerlof G. (1970) The market for lemons: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Quarterly Journal of Economics 84: 488–500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allais P.M. (1953) The behavior of rational man in risky situations – A critique of the axioms and postulates of the American School. Econometrica 21: 503–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ball S., Bazerman M., Carrol J. (1991), An evaluation of earning in the bilateral winner’s curse. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 48: 1–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balzer W.K., Doherty M.E., O’Connor R. (1989), Effects of cognitive feedback on performance. Psychological Bulletin 3: 410–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazerman M.H., Curhan J.R., Moore D.A., Valley K.L. (2000), Negotiation. Annual Review of Psychology 51: 279–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazerman M.H. (2002). Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (5th ed.). New York, John Wiley & Sons

    Google Scholar 

  • Bazerman M.H., Samuelson W.F. (1983). I won the auction but don’t want the prize. Journal of Conflict Resolution 27: 618–634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazerman M.H., Neale M.A. (1992) Negotiating Rationally. New York, The Free Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Bereby-Meyer, Y. and Grosskopf, B. (2007), Overcoming the Winner’s Curse: An Adaptive Learning Perspective, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, forthcoming.

  • Bransford J.D., Franks J.J., Vye N.J., Sherwood R.D. (1989). New approaches to instruction: Because wisdom can’t be told. In: Vosniadou S., Ortony A. (eds) Similarity and analogical reasoning. Cambridge, England, Cambridge University Press, pp. 470–497

    Google Scholar 

  • Bolton G., Ockenfels A. (2000) ERC: A Theory of Equity, Reciprocity and Competition. American Economic Review 90: 166–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brehmer B. (1980) In one word: Not from experience. Acta Psychologica 45: 223–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carroll J.S., Bazerman M.H., Maury R. (1988), Negotiator cognitions: A descriptive approach to negotiators’ understanding of their opponents. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 41: 352–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camerer C.F., Ho T.H. (1999). Experience-Weighted Attraction (EWA) learning in normal-form games. Econometrica 67: 827–1874

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coursey D.L., Hovis J.L., Schulze W.D. (1987) The disparity between willingness to accept and willingness to pay measures of values. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 102: 679–690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doherty, M.E. and Balzer, W.K. (1988), Cognitive feedback, in Brehmer, B. and Joyce, C.R.B. (eds.), Human Judgment: The SJT Approach, Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  • Einhorn H.J., Hogarth R.M. (1978). Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review 85: 395–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fehr E., Schmidt K. (1999) A Theory of Fairness, Competition and Cooperation. Quarterly Journal of Economics 114: 817–868

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischbacher, U. (1999), z-Tree – Zurich Toolbox for Readymade Economic Experiments–Experimenter’s Manual, Experimental Economics, forthcoming.

  • Foreman P., Murnighan J.K. (1996), Learning to avoid the winner’s curse. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 67: 170–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gick M.L., Paterson K.J. (1992), Do contrasting facilitate schema acquisition and analogical transfer?. Canadian Journal of Psychology 46: 539–550

    Google Scholar 

  • Grosskopf B., Erev I., Yechiam E. (2006) Foregone with the Wind. International Journal of Game Theory 34: 285–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grosskopf, B. and Nagel, R. (2007), The Two-Person Beauty Contest, Games and Economic Behavior, forthcoming.

  • Hammond, K.R., Stewart, T.R., Brehmer, B. and Steinmann, D.O. (1975), Social judgment theory, in Kaplan and Schwartz, S. (eds.), Human Judgment and Decision Processes, New York: Academic Press.

  • Hammond K.R., Summers D.A., Deane D.H. (1973), Negative effects of outcome-feedback in multiple-cue probability learning. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 9: 30–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heller, D. and Sarin, R. (2001), Adaptive Learning with Indirect Payoff Information, mimeo.

  • Hoffman P.J., Earle T.C., Slovic P. (1981), Multidimensional functional learning (MFL) and some new conceptions of feedback. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 27: 75–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Idson L., Chugh D., Moran S., Bereby-Meyer Y, Grosskopf B., Bazerman M.H. (2004), Overcoming focusing failures in competitive environments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 17: 159–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kagel, J.H. (1995), Auctions: A survey of experimental research, in Kagel, J. H. and Roth, A.E. (eds.), The Handbook of Experimental Economics.

  • Kagel J.H., Levin D. (1986) The winner’s curse and public information in common value auctions. American Economic Review 76: 894–920

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman D., Tversky A. (1979), Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47: 263–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kluger A.N., DeNisi A. (1996) The effects of feedback interventions on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. Psychological Bulletin 119: 254–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ross B.H., Kilbane M.C. (1997), Effects of principle explanation and superficial similarity on analogical mapping in problem solving. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 23: 427–440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roth A.E., Erev I. (1995), Learning in extensive form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term. Games and Economic Behavior 8: 164–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samuelson, W.F. and Bazerman, M.H. (1985), Negotiation under the winner’s curse, in Smith, V. (ed.), Research in Experimental Economics, Vol. III, JAI Press: Greenwich, CT.

  • Schotter, A. and Sopher, B. (2001), Advice and Behavior in Intergenerational Ultimatum Games: An Experimental Approach, mimeo.

  • Selten R., Abbink K., Cox R. (2005), Learning direction theory and the Winner’s Curse. Experimental Economics 8: 5–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith V.L. (1985) Experimental Economics: Reply. American Economic Review 75: 265–272

    Google Scholar 

  • Tennyson R.D. (1973), Effect of negative instances in concept acquisition using a verbal learning task. Journal of Educational Psychology 64: 247–260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson L., Gentner D., Loewenstein J. (2000), Analogical training more powerful than individual case training. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 82: 60–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tor A., Bazerman M.H. (2003) Focusing failures in competitive environments: explaining decision errors in the Monty Hall Game, the acquiring a company problem, and multi-party ultimatums. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16: 353–374

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tversky A., Kahneman D. (1974), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185: 251–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tversky A., Kahneman D. (1986), Rational choice and the framing of the decisions. Journal of Business 59: 251–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • VanderStoep S.W., Seifert C.M. (1993) Learning “how” versus learning “when”: Improving transfer of problem-solving principles. The Journal of Learning Sciences 3: 93–111

    Google Scholar 

  • Winston P.H. (1975) Learning structural descriptions from examples. In: Winston P.H. (ed). The Psychology of Computer Vision. New York, McGraw-Hill, pp.157–210

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Brit Grosskopf.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Grosskopf, B., Bereby-Meyer, Y. & Bazerman, M. On the Robustness of the Winner’s Curse Phenomenon. Theor Decis 63, 389–418 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-007-9034-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-007-9034-6

Keywords

JEL Classification

Navigation