, Volume 229, Issue 2, pp 373-386

Predictions of Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity Deduced from that of Sunspot Number

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A new method is proposed to predict cosmic ray intensity and solar modulation parameters. The method is coupled with the McNish and Lincoln method, which predicts first smoothed sunspot numbers. The error achieved is estimated and compared with the same chain of predictions using two other methods developed for US and Russian space applications. The three methods give satisfactory results when applied, for example, to prediction of the dose received on-board commercial aeroplane flights.