Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

, Volume 34, Issue 3, pp 179-199

First online:

Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.

Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory

  • Enrico DiecidueAffiliated withINSEAD, Decision Sciences
  • , Peter P. WakkerAffiliated withEconometric Institute, Erasmus University Email author 
  • , Marcel ZeelenbergAffiliated withDepartment of Economic and Social Psychology, Tilburg University


This paper extends de Finetti’s betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti’s method is so transparent that decision makers can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day’s performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations of rank dependence.


Ambiguity Prospect theory Rank-dependent utility Inverse-S Pessimism Optimism

JEL Classification

D81 C60