, Volume 29, Issue 4, pp 371-394

The dynamics in the spot, futures, and call options with basis asymmetries: an intraday analysis in a generalized multivariate GARCH-M MSKST framework

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Abstract

The main purpose of the study is to explore the dynamic relationship among the TAIEX spot, futures, and options markets by proposing an innovative multivariable GARCH-M MSKST (Multivariate Skewed-Student distribution) model. In addition to the considerable feedback effects of these three markets in terms of return transmissions, a significant bidirectional relationship is also found in volatility transmissions between futures and spot markets, and unidirectional spillover occurs from futures to options markets. Specifically, futures are found to exert the most influence on spot and options, and play an important role in disclosing information and pricing discovery to the other two markets. Comparing the magnitude of the effect the positive and negative basis has on spot prices, it is evident that positive basis has a greater impact on the spot market than negative basis does. Of interest, our study shows that positive basis has even more effect than negative basis does on the conditional variance of return on spot and futures.