Public Choice

, 137:1

Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election

Editorial Commentary

DOI: 10.1007/s11127-008-9333-7

Cite this article as:
Hibbs, D.A. Public Choice (2008) 137: 1. doi:10.1007/s11127-008-9333-7

Abstract

Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.

Keywords

Presidential elections Voting Real income growth Iraq war 2008 election 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CEFOSGothenburg UniversityGothenburgSweden