Article

Transportation

, Volume 39, Issue 3, pp 593-625

First online:

A joint model for vehicle type and fuel type choice: evidence from a cross-nested logit study

  • Stephane HessAffiliated withInstitute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds Email author 
  • , Mark FowlerAffiliated withResource Systems Group
  • , Thomas AdlerAffiliated withResource Systems Group
  • , Aniss BahreinianAffiliated withCalifornia Energy Commission

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Abstract

In the face of growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, there is increasing interest in forecasting the likely demand for alternative fuel vehicles. This paper presents an analysis carried out on stated preference survey data on California consumer responses to a joint vehicle type choice and fuel type choice experiment. Our study recognises the fact that this choice process potentially involves high correlations that an analyst may not be able to adequately represent in the modelled utility components. We further hypothesise that a cross-nested logit structure can capture more of the correlation patterns than the standard nested logit model structure in such a multi-dimensional choice process. Our empirical analysis and a brief forecasting exercise produce evidence to support these assertions. The implications of these findings extend beyond the context of the demand for alternative fuel vehicles to the analysis of multi-dimensional choice processes in general. Finally, an extension verifies that further gains can be made by using mixed GEV structures, allowing for random heterogeneity in addition to the flexible correlation structures.

Keywords

Cross-nested logit Vehicle type choice Fuel type choice Alternative fuel Stated preference