Transportation

, Volume 39, Issue 3, pp 593–625

A joint model for vehicle type and fuel type choice: evidence from a cross-nested logit study

  • Stephane Hess
  • Mark Fowler
  • Thomas Adler
  • Aniss Bahreinian
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11116-011-9366-5

Cite this article as:
Hess, S., Fowler, M., Adler, T. et al. Transportation (2012) 39: 593. doi:10.1007/s11116-011-9366-5

Abstract

In the face of growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, there is increasing interest in forecasting the likely demand for alternative fuel vehicles. This paper presents an analysis carried out on stated preference survey data on California consumer responses to a joint vehicle type choice and fuel type choice experiment. Our study recognises the fact that this choice process potentially involves high correlations that an analyst may not be able to adequately represent in the modelled utility components. We further hypothesise that a cross-nested logit structure can capture more of the correlation patterns than the standard nested logit model structure in such a multi-dimensional choice process. Our empirical analysis and a brief forecasting exercise produce evidence to support these assertions. The implications of these findings extend beyond the context of the demand for alternative fuel vehicles to the analysis of multi-dimensional choice processes in general. Finally, an extension verifies that further gains can be made by using mixed GEV structures, allowing for random heterogeneity in addition to the flexible correlation structures.

Keywords

Cross-nested logitVehicle type choiceFuel type choiceAlternative fuelStated preference

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stephane Hess
    • 1
  • Mark Fowler
    • 2
  • Thomas Adler
    • 3
  • Aniss Bahreinian
    • 4
  1. 1.Institute for Transport StudiesUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
  2. 2.Resource Systems GroupBurlingtonUSA
  3. 3.Resource Systems GroupBurlingtonUSA
  4. 4.California Energy CommissionSacramentoUSA