Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta

Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Jakarta has suffered major floods in 2002, 2007, and 2013. To cope with and adapt to both the current and future flood problem, the city requires quantitative assessments of flood risk. In this study, we develop a flood risk assessment model for Jakarta. The model is based on the Damagescanner model, adapted for Jakarta using local information on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The model was first set up using existing estimates of economic exposure of different land use classes to represent exposure and depth-damage functions (vulnerability curves) from several existing studies in south-east Asia to represent vulnerability. Using these data to simulate damage led to an overestimation by several orders of magnitude. Hence, we held a series of expert meetings and workshops with local stakeholders to develop specific estimates of economic exposure per land use class and to derive vulnerability curves specific for Jakarta. We compare the resulting simulated damages to reported damages and found them to be in good agreement, giving confidence in the use of the model for flood risk assessment. Under current conditions, we found the annual expected damage due to river flooding in Jakarta to be approximately USD 321 million per year. We also examined the sensitivity of flood risk assessments to the use of different vulnerability curves. The sensitivity is high: using the six curves described in this study to simulate risk led to a factor eight difference between the lowest and highest values. Our findings demonstrate that flood risk assessments need to pay close attention to the selection, development, and testing of vulnerability curves.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abidin H, Andreas H, Djaja R, Darmawan D, Gamal M (2008) Land subsidence characteristics of Jakarta between 1997 and 2005, as estimated using GPS surveys. GPS Sol 12(1):23–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aerts JCJH, Botzen WJW (2011) Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands. Glob Environ Change 21(3):1045–1060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aerts JCJH, Botzen WJW (2012) Managing exposure to flooding in New York City. Nat Clim Change 2:377. doi:10.1038/nclimate1487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aerts J, Sprong T, Bannink B (2008) BSIK Report 009/2008: Aandacht voor Veiligheid. VU University Press, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Apel H, Merz B, Thieken AH (2008) Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 6(2):149–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bappenas (2007) Laporan Perkiraan Kerusakan dan Kerugian Pasca Bencana Banjir Awal Februari 2007 di Wilayah JABODETABEK (Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, dan Bekasi). Tech. rept. Kementerian Negara Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/BAPPENAS, Jakarta

  • Beckers A, Detrembleur S, Dewals BJ, Dujardin S, Erpicum S, Pirotton M, Archambeau P (2013) Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 13:2301–2318. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2301-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bouwer LM, Bubeck P, Aerts JCJH (2010) Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area. Glob Environ Change 20(3):463–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BPS (2012) Infostat DKI Jakarta Juli 2012. BPS, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Bubeck P, De Moel H, Bouwer LM, Aerts JCJH (2011) How reliable are projections of future flood damage? Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 11:3293–3306. doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3293-2011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burnash RJC (1995) The NWS river forecast system: catchment modeling. In: Singh VP (ed) Computer models of watershed hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Littleton, pp 311–366

    Google Scholar 

  • Caljouw M, Nas PJM, Pratiwo MR (2005) Flooding in Jakarta: Towards a blue city with improved water management. Bijdragen tot de Taal-, Land- en Volkenkunde 161(4):454–484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Moel H, Aerts J (2011) Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates. Nat Hazards 58(1):407–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deltares (2009) Flood hazard mapping 2: overview. Report number Q0743.00. Deltares, Delft

  • Deltares (2014) SOBEK. Hydrodynamics, rainfall runoff and real time control. User Manual. Deltares, Delft, available online at: http://content.oss.deltares.nl/delft3d/manuals/SOBEK_User_Manual.pdf

  • Deltares, HKV Consultants, Puslitbang Sumber Daya Air, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Royal Haskoning DHV, Dinas Pekerjaan Umum Provinsi DKI Jakarta, Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Ciliwung Cisadane (2012) FMIS: flood management information system: main report. Jakarta: ministry of public works, directorate general of water resources, directorate of rivers and coastals, Jakarta

  • Dickens H (2011) Floody hell: A GIS based assessment into the total direct economic damages caused by extreme flood events in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Dissertation, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam

  • DTR-DKI (2007) Peta tata guna lahan provinsi DKI Jakarta. Dinas Tata Ruang Pemerintah Propinsi DKI Jakarta, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • ECLAC (2003) Handbook for estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of disasters. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and international bank for reconstruction and development (The World Bank), Mexico

  • Egorova R, van Noortwijk JM, Holterman SR (2008) Uncertainty in flood damage estimation. Int J River Basin Manag 6(2):139–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Firman T, Surbakti IM, Idroes IC, Simarmata HA (2011) Potential climate-change related vulnerabilities in Jakarta: challenges and current status. Habitat Int 35:372–378. doi:10.1016/j.habitatint.2010.11.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuchs S, Spachinger K, Dorner W, Rochman J, Serrhini K (2009) Evaluating cartographic design in flood risk mapping. Environ Hazards 8:52–70. doi:10.3763/ehaz.2009.0007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groumpos, PP (2010) Fuzzy Cognitive maps: basic theories and their application to complex systems. In Glykas M (ed) Fuzzy cognitive maps, 1–22. Studies in fuzziness and soft computing 247. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-03220-2_1

  • Gunawan R (2010) Gagalnya sistem kanal: pengendalian banjir Jakarta dari masa ke masa. Penerbit Buku Kompas, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S, Green C, Nicholls RJ, Corfee-Morlot J (2013) Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Clim Change 3:802–806. doi:10.1038/nclimate1979

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanson S, Nicholls R, Ranger N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Herweijer C, Chateau J (2011) A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Clim Change 104:89–111. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S, Konoshima L, Yamazaki D, Watanabe S, Kim H, Kanae S (2013) Global flood risk under climate change. Nat Clim Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate1911

    Google Scholar 

  • Jongman B, Kreibich H, Apel H, Barredo JI, Bates PD, Feyen L, Gericke A, Neal J, Aerts JCJH, Ward PJ (2012) Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 12:3733–3752. doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klijn F, Baan P, de Bruijn K, Kwadijk J (2007) Overstromingsrisico’s in Nederland in een veranderend klimaat. Delft Hydraulics, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Kooy M, Bakker K (2008) Splintered networks: the colonial and contemporary waters of Jakarta. Geoforum 39(6):1843–1858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marfai MA, Sekaranom AB, Ward PJ (2013) Community responses and adaptation strategies toward flood hazard in Jakarta-Indonesia. In review for Natural Hazards

  • Marschiavelli MIC (2008) Vulnerability assessment and coping mechanism related to floods in urban areas: a community-based case study in Kampung Melayu, Indonesia. Dissertation, Gadjah Mada University, Jogjakarta

  • Merz B, Thieken AH (2009) Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds. Nat Hazards 51(3):437–458. doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9452-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merz B, Kreibich H, Thieken A, Schmidtke R (2004) Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 4(1):153–163. doi:10.5194/nhess-4-153-2004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merz B, Kreibich H, Schwarze R, Thieken A (2010a) Assessment of economic flood damage. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 10:1697–1724. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merz B, Hall J, Disse M, Schumann A (2010b) Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:509–527. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-509-2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Messner F, Penning-Rowsell E, Green C, Meyer V, Tunstall S, Van der Veen A, Tapsell S, Wilson T, Krywkow J, Logtmeijer C, Fernández-Bilbao A, Geurts P, Haase D, Parker D (2007) Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods. Flood site report number T-09-06-01. HR Wallingford, Wallingford

  • Meyer V, Haase D, Scheuer S (2009a) Flood risk assessment in European river basins: concept, methods, and challenges exemplified at the Mulde river. Integr Environ Assess Manag 5:17–26. doi:10.1897/IEAM2008-031.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyer V, Scheuer S, Haase D (2009b) A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde River, Germany. Nat Hazards 48(1):17–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murungweni C, van Wijk MT, Andersson JA, Smaling EMA, Giller KE (2011) Application of fuzzy cognitive mapping in livelihood vulnerability analysis. Ecol Soc 16(4):2010. doi:10.5751/ES-04393-160408

    Google Scholar 

  • Muto M, Morishita K, Syson L (2010) Impacts of climate change on Asian coastal areas: the case of metro manila. Tech. rept JICA, Manila

    Google Scholar 

  • Noorduyn J, Verstappen H (1972) Purnavarman’s River-Works Near Tugu. Bijdragen tot de Taal-, Land- en Volkenkunde. Deel 128(2de/3de Afl.): 298–307

  • Nurmaulia SL, Fenoglio-Marc L, Becker M (2010) Long term sea level change from satellite altimetry and tide gauges in the Indonesian region. Geophy Res Abstracts 12: EGU2010-583-2

  • Penning-Rowsell EC, Chatterton JB (1977) The benefits of flood alleviation: a manual of assessment techniques. Saxon House

  • Pillai P, Bradford-Ryan P, Shyamsundar P, Ahmed K, Wang L (2010) Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: a synthesis report. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/09/12886839/climate-risks-adaptation-asian-coastal-megacities-synthesis-report

  • Poerbandono, Ward PJ, Julian M (2009) Set up and calibration of a spatial tool for simulating latest decades’ flow discharges of the western java: preliminary results and assessments. ITB J Eng Sci 41(1):50–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poussin JK, Bubeck P, Aerts JCJH, Ward PJ (2012) Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 12:3455–3471. doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3455-2012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sagala S, Lassa J, Yasaditama H, Hudalah D (2013) The evolution of risk and vulnerability in Greater Jakarta: Contesting Government Policy in dealing with a megacity’s exposure to flooding. An academic response to Jakarta Floods in January 2013. IRGSC Working Paper No. 2. January 2013

  • Stach W, Kurgan L, Pedrycz W (2010) Expert-based and computational methods for developing fuzzy cognitive maps. In Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, edited by Michael Glykas, 23–41. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing 247. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-03220-2_2

  • Steinberg F (2007) Jakarta: environmental problems and sustainability. Habitat Int 31:354–365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stelling GS and Verwey A (2006) Numerical flood simulation, in: Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences, 2006

  • Sutiyoso (2007) Megapolitan: pemikiran tentang strategi pengembangan kawasan terpadu dan terintegrasi Jakarta, Bogor, depok, tangerang, bekasi, dan cianjur. Elex Media Komputindo, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Te Linde AH, Bubeck P, Dekkers JEC, de Moel H, Aerts JCJH (2011) Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11(2):459–473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tollenaar D, Vatvani D, Brinkman JJ, Bons K (2013) NCICD—MP: behoeftespecificatie FHM and JCDS basics and specifications. Deltares, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR (2011) Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction 2011: revealing risk, redefining development. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR (2013) Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction 2013: From shared risk to shared value: The business case for disaster risk reduction. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Alphen J, Martini F, Loat R, Slomp R, Passchier R (2009) Flood risk mapping in Europe: experiences and best practices. J Flood Risk Manag 2:285–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van der Most H, Marchand M, Bucx T, Nauta T, Van Staveren M (2009) Towards sustainable development of deltas, estuaries and coastal zones. Description of eight selected deltas, Deltares

    Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, Veldkamp T, Bouma J (1999) Land use change under conditions of high population pressure: the case of Java. Glob Environ Change 9(4):303–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward PJ, Marfai MA, Tobing A, Elings C (2010) Jakarta flood risk. In: Dircke P, Aerts JCJH, Molenaar A (eds) Connecting delta cities II: sharing knowledge and working on adaptation to climate change. VU University Press, Amsterdam, p 159

    Google Scholar 

  • Ward PJ, De Moel H, Aerts JCJH (2011a) How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods? Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 11:3181–3195. doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3181-2011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward PJ, Marfai MA, Yulianto F, Hizbaron DR, Aerts JCJH (2011b) Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta. Nat Hazards 56:899–916. doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9599-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward PJ, Jongman B, Sperna Weiland FC, Bouwman A, Van Beek R, Bierkens M, Ligtvoet W, Winsemius H (2013a) Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity. Environ Res Lett 8:044019. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward PJ, Pauw WP, van Buuren MW, Marfai MA (2013b) Governance of flood risk management in a time of climate change: the cases of Jakarta and Rotterdam. Environ Polit 22(3):518–536. doi:10.1080/09644016.2012.683155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward PJ, Van Pelt SC, De Keizer O, Aerts JCJH, Beersma JJ, Van den Hurk BJJM, Te Linde A (2013c) Including climate change projections in probabilistic flood risk assessment. J Flood Risk Manag 7:141–151. doi:10.1111/jfr3.12029

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2009) Climate change impact and adaptation study for Bangkok metropolitan region: final report. Vol. 1 of Climate change impact and adaptation study for Bangkok metropolitan region: final report. Washington DC

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the Dutch research programme Knowledge for Climate and Delta Alliance research project HSINT02a (Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yus Budiyono.

Electronic supplementary material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Budiyono, Y., Aerts, J., Brinkman, J. et al. Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta. Nat Hazards 75, 389–413 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1327-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1327-9

Keywords

Navigation